The euro has fallen on its low level for four years Monday vis-a-vis the dollar, under 1.23 dollar, before rebounding, pushing the Ministers of Finance of the euro zone to be promised to redouble efforts to reduce their deficits.
Around 21:00 GMT (23H00 in Paris), the euro was worth 1.2394 dollar against 1.2359 dollar Friday evening.
The European single currency also went back vis-a-vis the yen to 114.66 yens against 114.28 yens Friday.
The dollar was stabilized vis-a-vis the Japanese currency with 92.51 yens against 92.47 yens Friday evening.
The European currency fell to 1.2235 dollar towards 02:35 GMT, its low level since April 18th, 2006, before rebounding clearly.
“I do not see anything concrete which changed in the situation” which weakens the euro, Jessica Hoversen estimated, of Total MF, estimating that the rebound of the currency concerned the “profit-takings” after its fall.
“The market remains very bear with respect to the euro”, she added. “So much of problems remain as for the question of the debt, and people are anxious consequences of the austerity measures on the economy.
“At a stretch, a return during birth of the euro -- with 1.18 dollar-- and even the parity, seem more of the scenarios so extreme only that”, their fellow-members of Mizuho Corporate Bank increased.
The investors fear that the problems of debt in euro zone weigh in the long run on the economic revival in Europe, and still doubt the effectiveness of the support plan of 750 billion euros decided one week ago for the countries which would be in difficulty.
The German chancellor Angela Merkel thus estimated Sunday that the euro zone had done nothing but “save time” with the plans of assistance in Greece and that to avoid the contagion with other countries in difficulty.
Monday, the Ministers for Finance of the euro zone, at this meeting in Brussels, promised to redouble efforts to reduce their deficits and to thus stop the crisis of confidence which continues to shake the monetary Union.
Their leader, Jean-Claude Juncker, was said “worried” by the speed with which the value of the euro dropped lately, but not anxious on the other hand of its current level.
Indeed, this fall contains a good news for the euro zone: “the depreciation of the euro will start again the competitiveness of the member countries and will start again exports, (...) whole while making them more competitive vis-a-vis foreign competition on their national markets”, according to Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Around 21:00 GMT, delivers it British dropped vis-a-vis the European currency, to 85.52 pence for one euro, as vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.4489 dollar. It fell to 1.4252 dollar towards 02:35 GMT, its low level since the end of March 2009.
The Swiss currency dropped a little vis-a-vis the euro, to 1.4019 Swiss franc for one euro, after having reached a new higher history with 1.3991 Swiss franc the day before around 18:50 GMT, crossing for the first time the threshold of 1.40 Swiss franc for one euro.
The Swiss currency dropped vis-a-vis the dollar, to 1.1308 Swiss franc.
The Chinese currency finished with 6.8277 yuans for a dollar against 6.8266 yuans Friday.
The euro was posted in fall, Thursday at the end of the European exchanges, vis-a-vis a dollar protected by its will have value-refuge, while fears were reinforced on a world deceleration pulled by the United States.
The currencies of the emergent economies also made the expenses of the climate of concern.
Around 16:00 GMT (18H00 in Paris), the euro was exchanged to 1.3433 dollar, against 1.3495 Wednesdays around 21:00 GMT.
The European single currency moved back vis-a-vis the Japanese currency, with 134.84 yens, against 134.91 the day before.
The dollar gained ground vis-a-vis the yen, with 100.44 yens for a dollar against 99.99 yens Wednesday evening.
The euro maintained its fall, vis-a-vis a resistant dollar in spite of the publication of figures showing a moderation of American inflation in September, and thus the possibility of a new fall of rates of the Federal fund, and those passably depressing of the industrial production which recorded in September its retreat the most marked since December 1974.
During the Asian exchanges, the euro had fallen vis-a-vis the dollar to 1.3346 dollar, not far from its low since March 2007, had reached last Friday.
After two meetings of euphoria, the world Stock Exchanges took again their tumble Wednesday and evolved in teeth of saw, always tetanized Thursday by the prospects for economic recession while the European Union was declared determined to stimulate the growth and employment but without generalized revival program.
In the United States, the American officials multiplied the warnings Wednesday: lower consumption, real crisis which “did not touch the bottom” and recovery which “is not for tomorrow”.
A person in charge of the EDF had even released the word as of Tuesday: the United States seems to be already entered in “recession”.
Collateral victims of the reserve of the investors to take risks, the “emergent currencies”, objects of speculation because of their strong output, see themselves from now on forsaken.
“The emerging markets remain exposed with the lack of visibility on the financial sector and with the effects of the rescue plans” the analysts of BNP Paribas summarized.
The Hungarian forint has still taken down Thursday, falling to the new ones low for more than two years vis-a-vis the euro and to the dollar.
The book Turkish joined again with levels more seen since October 2006, crossing the threshold of 1.50 book for a dollar.
The Mexican peso and the South-African Rand were maintained on their levels moreover low reached these last days vis-a-vis the dollar, and close to historical records to the fall vis-a-vis the euro.
The British currency was in rise vis-a-vis the European currency, to 77.88 pence for one euro, in fall vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.7239 dollar for a book.
The Swiss currency returned vis-a-vis the euro to 1.5209 Swiss franc for one euro, and dropped vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.1333 Swiss franc for a dollar.
The ounce of gold was worth 802.50 dollars with the fixing of the evening against 847 dollars the day before at the evening.
The Chinese yuan enclosed with 6.8298 yuans for a dollar against 6.8318 yuans the day before.
THE MARKETS ACTIONS: This week, the international stock markets progressed once again towards their more annual high levels. In spite of one four working days week because of the Easter weekend, the principal world stock exchange places thus confirmed the resumption of confidence in the international investors. First of all, Thursday, a series of good economic indicators made it possible the markets actions to be revived and rebound after two meetings in the red. The figures of exports in Europe, the Manufacturing ISM and the figures of employment in the
In the
In spite of the economic good figures published Thursday, this week will have known a flat. Indeed, the
The energy values they were also pushed by the rise in the price of the barrel of oil and the raw materials this week. The price of the barrel of crude oil is currently negotiated to 85.31$ in
In
Beyond the
In
ON THE FOREX: The dollar was strongly appreciated vis-a-vis the Yen this week (+1.3%). The pair reconsidered its level of 7 months ago. Macroeconomic good performances coming from the United States (manufacturing ISM, request for allowance unemployment…), combined emulously Japanese investors to obtain more advantageous outputs apart from the archipelago at this beginning of financial year, caused the fold of the Yen vis-a-vis the dollar. After having gained 5.3% in March, the cross-country race thus continues its bullish tendency while remaining with the cables of the 94Y in this end of the week. But more generally and in spite of the good performance of the ISM, the dollar ground vis-a-vis the whole of the major currencies lost as the fall testifies some to the Dollar index from 81.9 to 81 over the week. The figures of investigation ADP, published Wednesday, killed the moneychangers who thus fell down on the European currencies.
Thus, the euro and the pound sterling marked beautiful performances with the rise vis-a-vis the dollar and with the Yen. The good performances of the GDP and the manufacturing activity in the
But the most important rise was on the eurchf which literally “exploded in flight” after rumors on a forthcoming intervention of Central Bank Suisse (BNS). It would also seem that Central Bank sold an significant amount of Swiss franc with an aim of stopping an excessive appreciation by giving a clear signal to the market. The Swiss National Bank proceeded to no declaration after this fall of CHF. The euro thus flew away of 350 pips in less than 10 minutes yesterday afternoon (17h30), passing from 1.4144 to 1.4410.
Finally the Canadian dollar continues its progression vis-a-vis the dollar and approaches more and more the parity with 1 per 1. The Canadian dollar is reinforced in this moment on two elements. The first comes from the macroeconomic good performances of
THE NEXT WEEK: Among the macro-economic flow of advertisements to come, one will note index ISM nonmanufacturing Monday in the United States; advertisement of interest rates on Monday night in Australia; the speech of the EDF Wednesday and finally advertisements of interest rate in the United Kingdom and in the zone-Euro Thursday,
TRADE OF THE WEEK: Long AUD/JPY
The course took again its trend bull started since the beginning of 2009. It returned this week on its higher annual after having created a phase of fold. Several factors militate in favor of an appreciation of the Australian dollar in the days to come. First of all the bank of Australia (RBA) should further increase its directing rate the next week of 0.25 point. Moreover, the rise of the raw materials these last days and in particular of gold supports the appreciation of a currency “raw materials” like the AUD. Lastly, the renewal of optimism on the stock markets should contribute to standpoint in curry trade whose AUD is a reference to the purchase. Dimensioned yen, the aversion with the risk inevitably harms the Japanese currency.
From a technical point of view, the cross-country race now broke a key level of retracement to 85.35. The next important level is thus established to 92.60. The 90.00 will have before to be broken which represents our primary goal.
On achète sur repli à 86.00. Objectif à 90.00. Stop à 84.70.
AUD /JPY over 18 months
As you could note it on the many Forex forums, the question of the taxation is one of the questions which makes the most movement. Indeed, everyone is questioned, everyone has an opinion or experience to make divide, but little can be prided to offer answers which can make authority. We would not allot such a merit but endeavoured to clear up this bulky and complicated subject in order to facilitate the life of the traders.
While referring to various sites and by questioning in particular the Head office of Taxes (IGD), we can offer some brief replies right now to you:
1. The legality of Forex
In France, the trading on the foreign exchange market by a French resident answers certain conditions:
a) The broker must be approved by Banque de France.
b) The trading must be done according to the principle of the “spot forex”.
2. To fight the generally accepted ideas
Contrary to the generally accepted ideas, it is not when the trader repatriates its funds on an bank account in France which it becomes taxable. It is the possibility of having these funds which conditions the taxes level.
3. Forms to be used
Concerned with the income tax, under the terms of article 120 of the cgi, the declaration of the incomes of Forex must be done by using the following forms:
O Declaration of opening of account by form 3916.
O Form 2561 (a), line DL or DM for the PV/MV
O Declaration of the statement to defer line 2 TS
O Deduction during six years of the MV of statement Forex via form 2047 of the movable property.
4. Principles of the imposition
It is initially necessary to differentiate the foreign exchange market, of the stock market or future. The most been worth resulting from the trading on Forex must be declared in the register of the BNC (noncommercial benefit), is as nonprofessionals if you have another community activity, that is to say as professionals if it is your principal activity.
It is moreover possible to declare them in the register of the BNC but, because of the complexity which requires the assistance of an accountant, this means is used little.
Contrary to the fixed price of 27%, the income tax makes it possible to deduce all the expenses necessary to the realization from the profits (of the damping of the computer material to the subscriptions with flows via the travelling expenses for formations).
These expenses can represent up to 50% of the entire amount of your more been worth. With final, after having carried out such a declaration, the drawn advantage is largely higher than the fixed price of 27%.
5. Conditions of imposition according to the countries
Contrary to France, where the imposition can until reaching 60%, Switzerland does not impose the most not been worth on the exchange transactions and this, even for nonthe residents. The Belgian legislation is also interesting since the capital incomes are not imposed. On the other hand, the United States, where many brokers are, can impose up to 40%.
On the other hand, if you are resident French and that you carry out trades with a foreign broker, agreements between country exist so that covering is not done twice. For example, if your broker is in the United States, the agreements stipulate that you must declare the interests via the American administration while the statement must be declared in BNC with the French tax authority.
Whatever school of analysis which we belong, most of us are just a few problems with the claim that the effect of prices that all matters relating to trade futures, because the only determinant of the profits or losses of money. We have a very sensible, well thought out justification for forex analysis and our strategy, but if we can not confirm the price action is the sad reality that it is useless.
The technical analysis takes this concept one step further and say that everything is on trade, energy, the same price. In other words, holidays, events, new concessions, statistics and data, as well as economic and political developments into account and focus on the same price. This attitude is justified by the belief that the price action through the media and created a profit hungry traders following reflects all information available to the public at all times, and it is useless to seek the advantage over the market, trying to include all data currently hold. Not only can not be said technical analysts, but also unnecessary, since the prices already incorporate all available information by itself to the interpretation of the best minds and most powerful of the market. Technical analysts are warning us to study the markets, and ignoring everything else, and thus obtain a strong emphasis on the only evidence that matters of value.
Critics addressing technical analysis, while the price does not represent the total amount of bull and bear market does not reflect a consensus, and as such can not be used as the representative views of all stakeholders account. In other words, there is no such thing as a contract. Moreover, they add, even if short term, the price is hard to predict economic events in the long term are clear trends that can easily be achieved through fundamental analysis. Technical analysts defend their school, asking that fundamental analysis is difficult, if not more reliable than mechanical, and more time to complete.
Technical analysis tools applicable to all actions of the price displayed on maps. The indicators used for the production of market behavior or assess all costs to sell and the price structure for the interpretation of the underlying dynamics have been identified. Technical analysis does not claim to be free to create bugs, specific answers to questions in the minds of traders, but intends to identify the scenarios where the potential is a profitable business the longest. Technical bodies have adapted to a culture and used to deal with probabilities, and should be ready for the losses, taking into account necessary.
Let us stop this short study notes that the care in the chaotic environment of the market Forex, methods of money management and emotional control are equally important, if not more important than any kind of strategy and analysis. Learn Forex, we must maintain our capital. And the money management is what we learn to maintain it. With patience and dedication, it is difficult to achieve in Forex, but it does maintain a sense of the dream to swim in pools of gold and silver.
The Foreign Currency Exchange is a stable industry that experiences alterations because of the deviations in the foreign currency conversion rates. You should learn forex from the experience of others. While you aim to study everything out of your forex trading you will not actually recognize how others are creating profits.
To achieve something, you have to continually deal with trade in the forex market. You got to begin and end your trade with respect to the market information and the existing trends at the time of your decision making. Do not stay long expecting the value of the currency to increase to your expectation. It might not work out always. It is better to fix yourself with the market trends.
· Get an idea of the stop loss decision based on the existing situation while you trade. Do not initiate trading while there is a deficiency in liquidity.
· Get an idea of the separate trading systems for the high markets and the low markets. Don’t simply work with just a single trading strategy. Bring out your strategy with a focus and navigate per the market situation.
· Considering the market trend and other factors work in accordance with what your mind states. Decide accordingly on when things are likely bad and which they are right for the trade.
· Differentiate between rumors and real facts in the market. Make your buy and sell decisions accordingly.
· Begin trading after the market has gotten hot in for the day and end your trade before the end of the trading day.
· When it is an over buying of currencies you got to consider ending your trade. Do not do what others are doing all the time. When it is a bull market and the hike is too much it will for sure come down. With changeable foreign currency exchange rates, nothing is going to be steady.
I did not understand during a long time the difference between the various types of brokers existing on the foreign exchange market. The broker term is often used besides with twists because it is not all the time the case. In fact they should be differentiated according to their business model. Currently, there exist three great types of actors on the eForex from which the two last are most accessible to the private individuals:
* - ECN
* - Pure brokers
* - The market makers
ECN
The ECN (electronic communication network) are market places. All the operations are carried out directly on the interbank market. It is what one calls “No dealing desk”. Thus, as well as on Euronext for the market action, the book-building is posted. The participants are thus counterpart vis-a-vis the other participants because as you it can to buy, a salesman is needed opposite. The ECN make matcher the orders of their various customers. Do you put yourselves surely the same question that I am posed with the departure, how made one when there is nobody opposite? It is very simple, they appeal has suppliers of liquidities (liquidity provider or LP). These suppliers of liquidities are banks which make it possible to the customers to have an important liquidity and to obtain tight spreads in normal market condition. The prices are posted in real time and thus reflect the prices dimensioned by the various banks. That allows a total transparency of the market by giving access to information to the whole of the participants. Each liquidity provider (supplier of liquidity) posts its prices permanently and can type in the posted liquidity. The disadvantage is that the spreads are not fixed, in particular when volatility increases at the time of important economic advertisements. Sometimes the spread can reach 15 pips on the EUR/USD.
The ECN were reserved a long time for institutional but certain brokers propose this service with the private individuals today. In this last case, the ECN play them same the role of supplier of liquidity. The liquidity is some thus reduced compared to a supplier such as a bank.
The main advantage of the type of operation is that you keep anonymity and that the ECN cannot know of which account comes the giving orders. One cannot thus treat against you, I would reconsider this point later. This is a great advantage in particular for the scalpeurs. You can also decide to place an order between the bid price and the asking price.
The ECN are remunerated by commission on the volume treated by the traders. Often, that is around 10 has 20$ per treated million.
Pure brokers
The pure brokers have about same operation as the ECN with the difference that the liquidity suggested to their customers is ensured in all the cases by a supplier of liquidities. This supplier is a bank what thus ensures an important liquidity. The pure brokers are thus of mere intermediary between its customers and the bank. The prices are thus those posted by the bank on the interbank market finally not in all the cases. Indeed, the pure broker can be remunerated in two manners. The first, it is by the volume of transaction carried out by its customers (4 has 5$ per treated million for example). It is often that which is privileged and which makes it possible the broker to reduce its spreads. Second is what one calls the markup (ex: addition of a pips to the best offer and withdrawal of a pip to the best bid of its liquidity providers). The pure broker then gains a pip on each transaction.
The pure brokers do not take positions against you since they are autohedger by their liquidity provider. Even if contrary to the ECN, your anonymity is not kept, the scalping is thus authorized because the broker is not risks some even if you keep your position a few seconds.
In addition to a more important liquidity, the pure brokers propose advantages compared to the ECN in particular in the client relationship and the services brought. You will frequently have a range of tools higher, of the councils, analyzes, signals, subscription has systems of trading, managed accounts.
Market Makers
The market makers finally, are anything else only a little particular brokers. They generally post fixed spreads but the principal difference with the pure brokers is it not transparency of the prices. The market maker can decide to dimension apart from the prices of its suppliers of liquidities (LP) constantly, it is in particular the case at the time of the advertisements, certain brokers solidify their prices literally whereas the banks move in same time… but because of the guaranteed fixed spreads this is a normal thing. It should be known that when your Broker proposes 3 to you pips at the time of Nona farm Payroll, during this time half of its LP dimensions spreads of 10 or 20 pips. The only means for him of adjusting its risk while preserving a fixed spread is to solidify its price or contrary to brutally shifting it towards the other side of the fork.
Market Makers are probably the types of intermediaries which developed these last years. The spread fixes and the stops guaranteed there are for much. The latter found a formula which simplifies Forex for the particular customer, even the institutional one which wants to make a little FX without it being its principal activity.
The market maker takes a contrary position with your to be covered. It will be most of the time against you in his book since it is him which ensure the intermediation between you and the supplier of liquidity. The risk management is ensured by the risk book which gives the position in volume on each currency. Actually, below a certain amount (around 50K), the market maker compensate for the orders as interns without the router towards the market. Thus if you are “Too” profitable, you affected their “profitability”… All the markets makers do not practice this kind of operations but that arrives.
With the top of 50K, it is the supplier of liquidity thus the bank which covers the operations in return for a commission, or then the market maker itself.
To be remunerated, it can is to make pay a commission on volume of transactions or then increase by a pip the spread offered by its supplier of liquidity. This spread on the EUR/USD is of 2 pips. If a broker has a spread of 2 pips and no commission takes, it is often that it is remunerated thanks to the trades losers of its customers.
Most market makers do not accept the scalping because they do not have time to be covered. When it accepts it, quotations are the bid prices by the bank and thus the spread becomes variable. That is then made on a separate account scalping.
Conclusion
ECN:
Advantages: transparency of the prices; visible book-building; possibility of placing an order in the price range; scalping authorized; anonymity during the giving orders
Disadvantages: Spreads variables; less important liquidity; important commissions
Pure brokers:
Advantages: Important liquidity; transparency of the prices; many services offered; scalping authorized; The broker is not against you
Disadvantages: Spreads variables; commissions
Market makers:
Advantages: Spreads fixed; No commission; No the slippage
Disadvantages: Prohibited Scalping; quotation erroneous; if broker book only, gain much and you will not be it welcome.
Introduction
It is the ideal tool to accompany the tendencies and to optimize your exits. Super Trend evolves with the top or the lower part of the prices according to the developed tendency. It accompanies the prices as a following stop with the difference that this one does not progress or is not closed again on the prices during the zones of congestion. That gives more space and time to the prices to evolve, you thus giving the possibility of collecting a more important movement. You will be able to use it as indicating of exit as soon as this one changes direction or to position stops of protection.
Application of the method
Point entrance: Generally it is preferable to privilege the positions purchasers when Super Trend evolves with the lower part of the prices and a contrario it is preferable to take only positions sales when Super Trend evolves with the top of the prices. It is possible to reinforce its position when the course comes to type on the super trend without crossing it.
Point exit: The exit is carried out when Super Trend changes direction.
However, the stops loss must be placed a little at the top or below super trend according to the direction of the position. The larger the unit of time will be, the more it would be necessary to draw aside its stop of the super trend. Indeed, it often happens that the wicks of the candlesticks cross the super trend and that the fence of the same candlestick is done finally on the super trend for after involving a rebound of the course.
Summary
Advantages: Allows to benefit from great movements; Do not stick to the prices and thus avoids many forgeries signals in the event of side tendency or of correction of the market; Be used on all the time bases; Offer very good performances; simple of use
Disadvantages: The stops of protection are often distant owing to the fact that the super trend does not stick to the prices;
It is method is extremely simple and makes it possible to benefit from great movements. Indeed, moving average is indicators of tendency. To apply this strategy, it is enough for you to choose 3 moving average. That can be for example the MM20,50 and 100 or the MM7,14,21. They are the groups of moving average most often used. The more the moving average is parameterized over one short period, the more sensitive it will be to the variations of course and will change direction quickly. The choice of moving average used thus depends on your style of trading. For a trading short term, privilege moving average short in order to obtain a maximum of signals. The risk is then to obtain a large number of false signals. It is thus with you to choose.
Application of the method
Point entrance: When the moving average shortest crosses with the fall or the rise the two others, it is then necessary to return in the direction of the movement. To avoid the false signals, wait until the candlestick on your timeframe is enclosed before returning on the market.
Point exit: The position closure is made when the moving average shortest recrosses in the other direction two other moving average.
Summary
Advantages: facility of use; possibility of programming an automatic trading; allows to benefit from great movements
Disadvantages: ask time especially if the timeframe used is small. It is indeed impossible to establish a level of exit has the advance; Number important of false signals.
Since the devastating seism of January 12th, population of Haiti east thrown in the streets, without roof, awaiting with rage the international assistance which delays. Whereas the black-market makes new great strides and that the gangs seize the devastated streets, the population is in search of its economies. The savings of the Haitians are often under tons of engraved, their devastated house or the banking institutions which, following the example of presidential palace, did not resist the jolt.
For a few days, the financial system has started to be raised painfully even if dollars and gourds, i.e. the national currency, are always rationed. Contrary to the trade banks and their head offices located at Port-au-Prince, the central bank, a large made modern building of glass, is still upright. For a few days, the establishment has started to pump money towards the few still opened banks or about to opening.
Since the beginning of last week, the population which is always in search of liquidities can go in about thirty points of service located in all the Haitian capital. Many are those to come there to deposit the check of their employment in order to recover a little cash. However, of the restrictions were imposed by the authorities since the customers can withdraw only a few tens of dollars at the same time. The objective of the authorities is to avoid a rush towards the banks whereas a medical crisis dozes.
Gradually, the financial system should however find a pretense of normality, the provincial banks, which were not touched by the seism, restocking since a few days the banks of the capital still upright.
Measurements in favor of Greece, which fights to restore its public finances, “are not excluded” but would come from public financial institutions and not of the States members, indicated Saturday to Davos a European government source.
Excluding a rescue from great scale of Greece, of which the public deficit exploded, this government source specified in AFP that institutions like the Funds international currency (FMI) or the European Investment Bank could provide this help.
That would be however considered only provided that Greece “makes its duties” as regards reduction of the budget deficit, specified the source in margin of World economic forum (WEF) of Davos.
Greek the Prime Minister Georges Papandréou and his Minister for Finance Georges Papaconstantinou, present in the Swiss ski station, had ensured Friday that their country would arrive by his own means to reduce its budget deficit, contradicting an financial aid of the countries of the euro zone.
Greece has passed through the worst crisis of its public finances for thirty years, with the explosion of its debt envisaged at 113% of the GDP for 2009 and the revision of its public deficit with 12.7% of the GDP.
The assumption of such a help was discussed these last days but was highly contradicted officially, while Greece was kicked up a rumpus hard on the bond market.
The minister Frenchwoman of the Economy Christine Lagarde expressed his “confidence” in the capacity of the Greek government to rectify his finances. It ensured that the members of the euro zone were “all interdependent the ones with regard to the others”, but that “there is no system of rescue”.
The managing director of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn repeated that its institution was “ready to intervene” but estimated that “that will not be obligatorily necessary”.
Press informations gave a report on preparations on Germany and France, support measures for Greece within the European Union in particular. Information was officially contradicted in Paris and Berlin.
For Forex Trading profitable, you need to capture the trend and stick to it until a healthy part of development. Despite the fact that there are many indicators are characteristics of the operator to identify trends and business models, point and figure charts are among the signals generated by the simplicity and lack of clarity on the ad. The advantages of P & F Chart is its simplicity. Although it may seem complex and difficult at first glance, the inexperienced operators to act terse representation of the action of the market makes it an ideal choice for trend following strategies, where the most Retracements we can ignore, and the instability following the main pulse of the market.
AP Graphic & F consists of boxes, and OS X. X indicates an uptrend, the price has risen during this period. An O indicates a period of falling prices. But to do this, unlike other types of diagrams, charts, P & F, not all measures of prices in record time. There are two important criteria for the inclusion of daily price changes in a chart P & F: size location and level resolution. Frame size determines the minimum difference between opening price action before the close of trading days in a column of X (concept) in an uptrend) or less similar to the previous day in a column of Os (trend downwards. Cancellation determine the minimum amount of traffic, if the value is in conflict with a continuing trend. This is the minimum amount by which it must refuse a column of X and begins a column in the OS, if the price decreases, and vice versa, although growing. They have, in other words, until the stay Cancellation less than the amount set aside in a uptrend, we have a column of X, if the same applies to a downtrend, then we have a column in the OS. The market shares, the box size is usually 1, and the amount of Retracement is 3rd
It sounds complicated but is really very simple. Traders buy or sell turning points. For example, if after a period of X-chart shows, it is likely that a reversal has taken place, and time to market short. However, there may be a trend right after the exit and keep buying and selling as the main trend remains intact. Since the P & F chart significantly affect the single path that covers the trends of this resolution shall be defined and perhaps more reliable.
The P & F chart is not very popular among professionals, and many brokers Forex Trading, leave it in standard packages. However, this does not mean that this instrument may be less effective than others. Doing this kind of stock charts for business and want to use foreign currency, there is nothing to prevent you from it. The same rules and principles, and the simple nature and not complication of P & F, you can even make its own calculations in your power to create at any time.
To learn how to trade currencies, you must have the appropriate knowledge. ForexTraders.com provides free information to help you learn the strategies, analysis, how to choose between brokers Forex Trading, and we even have free reign!
- the speech of the EDF left completely unchanged all the principal factors, including interest rate, the programme of purchase of asset and the central parts of the speech.
- The American actions set out again with the rise, following the advertisement of the EDF.
- The positive feeling gained the Asian markets, where the indices record strong profits.
- Pair EUR/USD briefly passes under the level of 1.40, for the first time since the month of last July.
The day of yesterday was full with significant events, which perhaps made it possible to find the appetite of the risk, for the moment. The American markets actions reacted very favorably to the advertisement of the EDF, which did not change its commitment to leave the low rates “for one prolonged period time”, and which improved its opinion of the economy in general.
The positive feeling continued on the Asian markets, where important profits are recorded. At the same time Nikkei and Hang Seng are in rise of 1.5% at the time of the writing of these lines, whereas the future ones on the S&P are again with the rise.
One awaits today the breaking news of the Greek face as well as the continuation of the results of the fourth quarters. One also awaits the vote of confirmation of Bernanke for today.
In Euroland, the European commission will deliver economic situation for December. One awaits in the United States the results of the sales of durable goods and those of unemployment, through the requests for allowances unemployment. Those should continue their fall. If not, the markets should badly react. The sales of durable goods are an important sign of recovery, and this is why the markets will read these results attentively.
On the foreign exchange market, the Euro continues to suffer from the problems of Greece and Portugal. It spent this morning for the first time since July under the bar of the 1.40. Indeed, the two countries are always under the magnifying glass of the investors, who fear for their capacity to refund their debts. All that is obviously not good for the Euro, which loses ground vis-a-vis in the majority of the other currencies. USD was also reinforced vis-a-vis the JPY and the pair passed by again above 90. The cyclic currencies, like the NZD for example, profited from the positive feeling on the markets and are in rise, even vis-a-vis the dollar, although “kiwi” did not receive any support of the RBNZ, the New Zealand central bank, which kept its unchanged rates with 2.50%, the last night.
Year 2009 was characterized by a bond opposed between USD and the actions. The more the actions went up, the more USD dropped. On the other hand, this bond has weakened for a few months now and one lived a day as lately as yesterday when the UDS was reinforced, as well as the markets actions. This change reflects the change of priorities on the market of the forex, which gives again apparently more importance with interest rates than with the actions.
Technically, pair EUR/USD could go down until the area from 1.3832/1.3755, following the break of the resistance of 1.4007
The declarations of Jean-Claude Juncker in connection with Greek public finances created a feeling of insecurity around the euro and benefitted the dollar, which crossed the levels of 1.0500 (higher to 1.0554). This level has highest been recorded for 6 months and it is justified by the probable end of low interest rate in the United States.
The last vote for the maintenance of the current monetary policy was not done unanimously and a forthcoming rise of the rates would support the dollar. We are now “shorts” on the parity sale to 1.0500 and we await a return of the parity under this level.
EUR-USD According to Axel Weber, one of the leaders of the ECB, “the crisis certainly is not finished yet!”. Fears related to the financial health of Greece, as well as waiting of the meeting monetary policy committee of Federal fund (FOMC) yesterday evening, have made plunge the single currency on its low level for 6 months, to 1.3933 with low. The dollar continued to profit from a purchasing current fort and we think that it would be useful to benefit from this clearing to buy the parity under the 1.4000, for a medium-term return above 1.4500.
USD-JPY the overseas investments increased by 230.1 billion yens in the Japanese purses and 663.8 billion yens in the Japanese obligations. The sales of detail are in fall of -0.3% for December. Following the decision of the FOMC, the purses set out again with the rise, causing a fall of the yen. The USD/JPY is assembled from 89.15 to 90.39 and cross-country race EUR/JPY from 125.25 to 126.73. The point pivot of 90.00 remainder invariably of topicality.
EUR-CHF the euro against Swiss franc was not touched by the turbulences recorded by the principal parities. The channel of 1.4700 - 1.4750 held and should continue today (low to 1.4710 and higher to 1.4739 during the last 24 hours).
GBP-USD Surprisingly, the declarations of Andrew Sentance in connection with British inflation do not have affected delivers it, quite to the contrary! The market, having a presentiment of a probable end of the programme of injection of liquidity undertaken for several months by the central bank, has profited to massively buy the GBP/USD, which flew away up to 1.6245 before folding up itself slightly. Today, the rise should find a good resistance towards the levels of 1.6285.The situation of January 28th on the markets printable Version To suggest by e-mail
The president of the Funds international currency, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, estimates that in a globalized world, “it there more place for a national solution”. He also invited China to revalue Yuan.
If it wishes more monetary stability, the world cannot any more be dependant on only one currency of international reserve. It is what with declared Tuesday the managing director of the Fund international currency (FMI), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, during a conference. “In a globalized world, it there more place for a national solution” have-you it declared, allusion made to the American dollar, whose statute of currency refuge is criticized more and more. According to the IMF, a new currency of reserve could as a result be based on the system of the special drawing rights (DTS), the Unit of Account used by the international institution. A position which at the beginning of year the director of the central bank of China had already defended, which did not wish any more to see the dollar continuing to remain indefinitely the single currency of world reserve.
At the end of a two days visit in Beijing during which it in particular met persons in charge of the Central bank and ministry for the Trade, Dominique Strauss-Kahn also invited China to revalue her national currency. “The renminbi (yuan) is underestimated. A revaluation is in the interest of the worldwide economy but as of China”, he said, adding as “earliest will be best”. “That will take time because it is not something which one can modify from one day to another”, however recognized the French former minister. This rebalancing is however necessary, because China currently has “a commercial advantage but she also suffers from prices which are false, likely to lead to bad decisions as regards long-term investments”.
China is the subject since years of pressures to let its currency appreciate itself, in particular on the part of its large business partners, the United States and European Union. The latter estimate as a result that weak Yuan favors Chinese exports.
The Asian development bank revises with the rise its growth forecasts for the area in 2009 and 2010.
It is not a surprise, but the BAD (Asian development bank) confirms it: Asia east about to leading world economic recovery. It even estimates that the area is “more resistant than it was believed” and has, this Tuesday, revised with the rise his forecasts of the month of last March.
In its eyes, the global growth of Asia, except Japan, will be of 3.9% this year and 6.4% per annum next. It will be drawn by China (+ 8.2% in 2009 and + 8.9% in 2010) which will benefit from its revival program of 4,000 billion yuans (396 billion euros), but not only. India (+ 6% and + 7% respectively) and Indonesia (+ 4.3% and + 5.4%) will also take part in it.
Because, the bank underlines, in fact the large developing countries still will be affirmed like the genuine engines of the way out of crisis and not smallest which is opened with the international exchanges.
Thus Singapore, very depend on the western world, he will plunge from 5% this year before finding a growth of 3.5% per annum next, just as Hongkong (- 4%, then + 3%), Taiwan (- 4.9%, + 2.4%), Thailand (- 3.2%, + 3%) and Malaysia (- 3.1%, + 4.2%).
The case of South Korea seems except for. In spite of an important support program with consumption, this country will remain in the red in 2009 (- 2%) and will have to wait until 2010 to join again with the growth (+4%).
But the BAD wants to be still careful. “The recovery remains fragile and exposed at big risks”, underlines in chief its economist, Lee Jong-wha. It would especially not be necessary, insists, that the governments decide “to draw with haste on the carpets from the budgetary and monetary supports”.
Very whole Asia, he adds, imperatively needs to be based on an inner demand much keener than it is not currently to compensate for its dependence with respect to the weight of its exports. For that purpose, the determination of the public authorities to start again consumption will be paramount.
But it will also be necessary for him to count more on a true regional integration. It started to do it while making fall from many tariff barriers. Unfortunately the creation of a true Common Market, built around the ASEAN (Association of nations of the Southeast Asia), of China, of South Korea and Japan, advances only at the speed of a snail.
The American Central bank maintains its rates close to zero, but wants to be more optimistic on the economy.
As expected by the markets, the central bank américiane decided to maintain its rates directing close to zero, at the end of a two days meeting. The EDF returned a report of monetary policy more optimistic than usually, estimating that the American economic activity “was rectified”, but will remain still “weak”. Already last week, Ben Bernanke, his president, declared that the recession was probably finished.
After four consecutive quarters of contraction of the GDP, the Federal fund confirms to see a return to the growth with the third quarters. And the figures are there to support this analysis. For this summer, the industrial production, the retail sales and of housing have set out again with the rise and the markets actions find little by little the favor of the investors.
But the EDF wants to be more reserved on consumption and the employment picture. Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, seven million American has lost their employment, carrying unemployment rate with 9.7% in August, a level more seen for 26 years. And the tendency should still continue several months.
Reason moreover for the American central bank to maintain its monetary policy accommodating and to give a nudge in the right direction to the incipient recovery, whereas the unemployment and the mitigated confidence of the consumers always encourage the Americans to reduce their expenditure to credit, engine of the growth in the United States. Moreover, the EDF will preserve until March 2010 its programme of repurchase of mortgage deeds, intended to lower the cost of the real loans.
Whatever school of analysis which we belong, most of us are just a few problems with the claim that the effect of prices that all matters relating to trade futures, because the only determinant of the profits or losses of money. We have a very sensible, well thought out justification for forex analysis and our strategy, but if we can not confirm the price action is the sad reality that it is useless.
The technical analysis takes this concept one step further and say that everything is on trade, energy, the same price. In other words, holidays, events, new concessions, statistics and data, as well as economic and political developments into account and focus on the same price. This attitude is justified by the belief that the price action through the media and created a profit hungry traders following reflects all information available to the public at all times, and it is useless to seek the advantage over the market, trying to include all data currently hold. Not only can not be said technical analysts, but also unnecessary, since the prices already incorporate all available information by itself to the interpretation of the best minds and most powerful of the market. Technical analysts are warning us to study the markets, and ignoring everything else, and thus obtain a strong emphasis on the only evidence that matters of value.
Critics addressing technical analysis, while the price does not represent the total amount of bull and bear market does not reflect a consensus, and as such can not be used as the representative views of all stakeholders account. In other words, there is no such thing as a contract. Moreover, they add, even if short term, the price is hard to predict economic events in the long term are clear trends that can easily be achieved through fundamental analysis. Technical analysts defend their school, asking that fundamental analysis is difficult, if not more reliable than mechanical, and more time to complete.
Technical analysis tools applicable to all actions of the price displayed on maps. The indicators used for the production of market behavior or assess all costs to sell and the price structure for the interpretation of the underlying dynamics have been identified. Technical analysis does not claim to be free to create bugs, specific answers to questions in the minds of traders, but intends to identify the scenarios where the potential is a profitable business the longest. Technical bodies have adapted to a culture and used to deal with probabilities, and should be ready for the losses, taking into account necessary.
Let us stop this short study notes that the care in the chaotic environment of the market Forex, methods of money management and emotional control are equally important, if not more important than any kind of strategy and analysis. Learn Forex, we must maintain our capital. And the money management is what we learn to maintain it. With patience and dedication, it is difficult to achieve in Forex, but it does maintain a sense of the dream to swim in pools of gold and silver.
