The president of the Funds international currency, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, estimates that in a globalized world, “it there more place for a national solution”. He also invited China to revalue Yuan.
If it wishes more monetary stability, the world cannot any more be dependant on only one currency of international reserve. It is what with declared Tuesday the managing director of the Fund international currency (FMI), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, during a conference. “In a globalized world, it there more place for a national solution” have-you it declared, allusion made to the American dollar, whose statute of currency refuge is criticized more and more. According to the IMF, a new currency of reserve could as a result be based on the system of the special drawing rights (DTS), the Unit of Account used by the international institution. A position which at the beginning of year the director of the central bank of China had already defended, which did not wish any more to see the dollar continuing to remain indefinitely the single currency of world reserve.
At the end of a two days visit in Beijing during which it in particular met persons in charge of the Central bank and ministry for the Trade, Dominique Strauss-Kahn also invited China to revalue her national currency. “The renminbi (yuan) is underestimated. A revaluation is in the interest of the worldwide economy but as of China”, he said, adding as “earliest will be best”. “That will take time because it is not something which one can modify from one day to another”, however recognized the French former minister. This rebalancing is however necessary, because China currently has “a commercial advantage but she also suffers from prices which are false, likely to lead to bad decisions as regards long-term investments”.
China is the subject since years of pressures to let its currency appreciate itself, in particular on the part of its large business partners, the United States and European Union. The latter estimate as a result that weak Yuan favors Chinese exports.
The Asian development bank revises with the rise its growth forecasts for the area in 2009 and 2010.
It is not a surprise, but the BAD (Asian development bank) confirms it: Asia east about to leading world economic recovery. It even estimates that the area is “more resistant than it was believed” and has, this Tuesday, revised with the rise his forecasts of the month of last March.
In its eyes, the global growth of Asia, except Japan, will be of 3.9% this year and 6.4% per annum next. It will be drawn by China (+ 8.2% in 2009 and + 8.9% in 2010) which will benefit from its revival program of 4,000 billion yuans (396 billion euros), but not only. India (+ 6% and + 7% respectively) and Indonesia (+ 4.3% and + 5.4%) will also take part in it.
Because, the bank underlines, in fact the large developing countries still will be affirmed like the genuine engines of the way out of crisis and not smallest which is opened with the international exchanges.
Thus Singapore, very depend on the western world, he will plunge from 5% this year before finding a growth of 3.5% per annum next, just as Hongkong (- 4%, then + 3%), Taiwan (- 4.9%, + 2.4%), Thailand (- 3.2%, + 3%) and Malaysia (- 3.1%, + 4.2%).
The case of South Korea seems except for. In spite of an important support program with consumption, this country will remain in the red in 2009 (- 2%) and will have to wait until 2010 to join again with the growth (+4%).
But the BAD wants to be still careful. “The recovery remains fragile and exposed at big risks”, underlines in chief its economist, Lee Jong-wha. It would especially not be necessary, insists, that the governments decide “to draw with haste on the carpets from the budgetary and monetary supports”.
Very whole Asia, he adds, imperatively needs to be based on an inner demand much keener than it is not currently to compensate for its dependence with respect to the weight of its exports. For that purpose, the determination of the public authorities to start again consumption will be paramount.
But it will also be necessary for him to count more on a true regional integration. It started to do it while making fall from many tariff barriers. Unfortunately the creation of a true Common Market, built around the ASEAN (Association of nations of the Southeast Asia), of China, of South Korea and Japan, advances only at the speed of a snail.
The American Central bank maintains its rates close to zero, but wants to be more optimistic on the economy.
As expected by the markets, the central bank américiane decided to maintain its rates directing close to zero, at the end of a two days meeting. The EDF returned a report of monetary policy more optimistic than usually, estimating that the American economic activity “was rectified”, but will remain still “weak”. Already last week, Ben Bernanke, his president, declared that the recession was probably finished.
After four consecutive quarters of contraction of the GDP, the Federal fund confirms to see a return to the growth with the third quarters. And the figures are there to support this analysis. For this summer, the industrial production, the retail sales and of housing have set out again with the rise and the markets actions find little by little the favor of the investors.
But the EDF wants to be more reserved on consumption and the employment picture. Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, seven million American has lost their employment, carrying unemployment rate with 9.7% in August, a level more seen for 26 years. And the tendency should still continue several months.
Reason moreover for the American central bank to maintain its monetary policy accommodating and to give a nudge in the right direction to the incipient recovery, whereas the unemployment and the mitigated confidence of the consumers always encourage the Americans to reduce their expenditure to credit, engine of the growth in the United States. Moreover, the EDF will preserve until March 2010 its programme of repurchase of mortgage deeds, intended to lower the cost of the real loans.
