Asia, engine of the recovery

The Asian development bank revises with the rise its growth forecasts for the area in 2009 and 2010.

It is not a surprise, but the BAD (Asian development bank) confirms it: Asia east about to leading world economic recovery. It even estimates that the area is “more resistant than it was believed” and has, this Tuesday, revised with the rise his forecasts of the month of last March.

In its eyes, the global growth of Asia, except Japan, will be of 3.9% this year and 6.4% per annum next. It will be drawn by China (+ 8.2% in 2009 and + 8.9% in 2010) which will benefit from its revival program of 4,000 billion yuans (396 billion euros), but not only. India (+ 6% and + 7% respectively) and Indonesia (+ 4.3% and + 5.4%) will also take part in it.

Because, the bank underlines, in fact the large developing countries still will be affirmed like the genuine engines of the way out of crisis and not smallest which is opened with the international exchanges.

Thus Singapore, very depend on the western world, he will plunge from 5% this year before finding a growth of 3.5% per annum next, just as Hongkong (- 4%, then + 3%), Taiwan (- 4.9%, + 2.4%), Thailand (- 3.2%, + 3%) and Malaysia (- 3.1%, + 4.2%).

The case of South Korea seems except for. In spite of an important support program with consumption, this country will remain in the red in 2009 (- 2%) and will have to wait until 2010 to join again with the growth (+4%).

But the BAD wants to be still careful. “The recovery remains fragile and exposed at big risks”, underlines in chief its economist, Lee Jong-wha. It would especially not be necessary, insists, that the governments decide “to draw with haste on the carpets from the budgetary and monetary supports”.

Very whole Asia, he adds, imperatively needs to be based on an inner demand much keener than it is not currently to compensate for its dependence with respect to the weight of its exports. For that purpose, the determination of the public authorities to start again consumption will be paramount.

But it will also be necessary for him to count more on a true regional integration. It started to do it while making fall from many tariff barriers. Unfortunately the creation of a true Common Market, built around the ASEAN (Association of nations of the Southeast Asia), of China, of South Korea and Japan, advances only at the speed of a snail.