THE MARKETS ACTIONS: This week, the international stock markets progressed once again towards their more annual high levels. In spite of one four working days week because of the Easter weekend, the principal world stock exchange places thus confirmed the resumption of confidence in the international investors. First of all, Thursday, a series of good economic indicators made it possible the markets actions to be revived and rebound after two meetings in the red. The figures of exports in Europe, the Manufacturing ISM and the figures of employment in the
In spite of the economic good figures published Thursday, this week will have known a flat. Indeed, the
The energy values they were also pushed by the rise in the price of the barrel of oil and the raw materials this week. The price of the barrel of crude oil is currently negotiated to 85.31$ in
ON THE FOREX: The dollar was strongly appreciated vis-a-vis the Yen this week (+1.3%). The pair reconsidered its level of 7 months ago. Macroeconomic good performances coming from the United States (manufacturing ISM, request for allowance unemployment…), combined emulously Japanese investors to obtain more advantageous outputs apart from the archipelago at this beginning of financial year, caused the fold of the Yen vis-a-vis the dollar. After having gained 5.3% in March, the cross-country race thus continues its bullish tendency while remaining with the cables of the 94Y in this end of the week. But more generally and in spite of the good performance of the ISM, the dollar ground vis-a-vis the whole of the major currencies lost as the fall testifies some to the Dollar index from 81.9 to 81 over the week. The figures of investigation ADP, published Wednesday, killed the moneychangers who thus fell down on the European currencies.
Thus, the euro and the pound sterling marked beautiful performances with the rise vis-a-vis the dollar and with the Yen. The good performances of the GDP and the manufacturing activity in the
But the most important rise was on the eurchf which literally “exploded in flight” after rumors on a forthcoming intervention of Central Bank Suisse (BNS). It would also seem that Central Bank sold an significant amount of Swiss franc with an aim of stopping an excessive appreciation by giving a clear signal to the market. The Swiss National Bank proceeded to no declaration after this fall of CHF. The euro thus flew away of 350 pips in less than 10 minutes yesterday afternoon (17h30), passing from 1.4144 to 1.4410.
Finally the Canadian dollar continues its progression vis-a-vis the dollar and approaches more and more the parity with 1 per 1. The Canadian dollar is reinforced in this moment on two elements. The first comes from the macroeconomic good performances of
THE NEXT WEEK: Among the macro-economic flow of advertisements to come, one will note index ISM nonmanufacturing Monday in the United States; advertisement of interest rates on Monday night in Australia; the speech of the EDF Wednesday and finally advertisements of interest rate in the United Kingdom and in the zone-Euro Thursday,
TRADE OF THE WEEK: Long AUD/JPY
The course took again its trend bull started since the beginning of 2009. It returned this week on its higher annual after having created a phase of fold. Several factors militate in favor of an appreciation of the Australian dollar in the days to come. First of all the bank of Australia (RBA) should further increase its directing rate the next week of 0.25 point. Moreover, the rise of the raw materials these last days and in particular of gold supports the appreciation of a currency “raw materials” like the AUD. Lastly, the renewal of optimism on the stock markets should contribute to standpoint in curry trade whose AUD is a reference to the purchase. Dimensioned yen, the aversion with the risk inevitably harms the Japanese currency.
From a technical point of view, the cross-country race now broke a key level of retracement to 85.35. The next important level is thus established to 92.60. The 90.00 will have before to be broken which represents our primary goal.
On achète sur repli à 86.00. Objectif à 90.00. Stop à 84.70.