Fifth consecutive week of rise for the international stock markets

THE MARKETS ACTIONS: This week, the international stock markets progressed once again towards their more annual high levels. In spite of one four working days week because of the Easter weekend, the principal world stock exchange places thus confirmed the resumption of confidence in the international investors. First of all, Thursday, a series of good economic indicators made it possible the markets actions to be revived and rebound after two meetings in the red. The figures of exports in Europe, the Manufacturing ISM and the figures of employment in the United States made it possible to instigate the progression of the market indexes this week. Moreover, concerns of the investors as for the Greek debt seem to be blurred this week, to leave room to an appetite for the found risk. So the currencies known as risky increased vis-a-vis dollar U.S and to the Yen. On the markets actions, they are mainly the financial values, as well as the oil shares which benefited the most from it. Indeed, the prices of the raw materials progressed well this week.

In the United States, the American major index, the Dow - Jones Industrial approaches with great steps the symbolic threshold the 11,000 points, level which it had not reached since September 2008 before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. In spite of two meetings in the red Tuesday and Wednesday, the Dow - Jones benefitted from the good performances of the banking and financial values American. This last sector was delighted by the American good figure of the ISM of the manufacturing sector arisen in March with 59.6, that is to say a progression of 3.1 points compared to February. Moreover, the requests with the allowances unemployments published on a weekly basis are again arisen lowers by it this week from 6,000 to 439,000 applicants. The markets reacted well to this advertisement, which confirms a deceleration of the destruction of employment in the first worldwide economy. Thursday, in Wall Street, the banking ones were very coveted. With the fence, Citigroup allocated 3.21%, Bank of America gained 1.06% to 18.04$ and JP Morgan +0.96% to 45.18$. This week, index S&P 500 gains 0.99% and Nasdaq Composite gains 0.31%. With the introduction of its new leading product, Ipad, Apple gained 0.41% yesterday. Manufacturing smartphones Blackberry, Research in Motion, released 7.42% yesterday, following the publication of its quarterly results in fall.

In spite of the economic good figures published Thursday, this week will have known a flat. Indeed, the US markets unscrewed all Wednesday following the publication of the investigation relating to American employment by agency ADP. In March, the number of job-seekers is arisen with 23,000 applicants, whereas the analysts counted on 40,000 job creations. The indicator on the employment revealed Wednesday by agency ADP is all the more important as he announces an estimate (two days front) of the monthly statistics on US employment called “non-farm payrolls”. So the analysts anticipate a disappointing figure today, which could make pass the European markets in the red as of the opening Tuesday, March 6 next.

The energy values they were also pushed by the rise in the price of the barrel of oil and the raw materials this week. The price of the barrel of crude oil is currently negotiated to 85.31$ in New York. The barrel of Brent of the North Sea is also negotiated in rise with 84.42$ the barrel. Wednesday, crude oil stocks were however brought out in rise of 2.9 million units, that is to say a figure definitely higher than the forecasts of the analysts. Moreover, shortly after the publication of these last figures, the US president, Barack Obama, declared its intention to develop the American oil exploitation at sea. Its remarks at once pushed with the rise the mining shares and of the raw materials. On the whole of the meetings of the week, the American giant, Rafter, gain 3.04% at 76.69$, Exxon +1.61% to 61.71$. The giant of aluminum, Alcoa, gains also 3.01% this week.

In Europe, during the first quarter 2010, the principal European indices will have evolved in dispersed order. Whereas the French, German, and English indices have all advanced since last January, the indices Spanish, Italian and Greek have all dropped. This week, the Euro Stoxx 50 gains 1.28% to 2978 points. CAC 40 has gained 1.14% on the whole of the meetings for Monday. The French key market indicator thus advances towards the 4050 points, and signs a rise of 0.96% since the first January 2010. Among the strongest values this week, Accor gains 3.54% in 42.44€ and Total of 2.06% with 43.64€ in the wake of the raw materials. Thursday, Technip was appreciated of 3.79%. On the side of the banking values, BNP Paribas rebounded 1.65% Thursdays after having released 2.45% Wednesdays. To note the fall Thursday by the Standard credit rating agency & Poors' of the notation of the French insurer, AXA, of “AA” with “AA-”. Lastly, let us note the progression of the sales of cars of 17.9% in March. In spite of this good performance, the French automobile values moved back all this week.

Beyond the rhine, the DAX advances of 1.89% this week at 6235.56 points. The banking values evolved in dispersed order. Whereas Deutsche Bank still gains ground with more with 59.11€ the title this week (+0.40%), Commerzbank falls of 4.56% this week. In England, FTSE 100 gains 0.73% this week at 5744 points.

In Asia, Thursday the 1st er April will have sounded the tax end of the year. The Asian markets evolved in the whole in positive territory this week. Asia was carried by very the Chinese economic good figures. Indeed, China intends to publish a GDP in rise of 12% for the first quarter 2010. Moreover, Thursday, the index of the directors of purchases is arisen in rise of 3 points in March. The Hong Kong index gained 1.4% Thursdays and mixes with the 21,540 points. Shangai Index allocates 3.2% on the whole of the meetings of the week. Lastly, Nikkei was also appreciated of 2.26% this week towards the 11,300 points. In the first quarter, the index of Tokyo east in progression of 5.2%, carried by fine shape of the US markets, but also by the improvement of the accounts of the Japanese companies.

ON THE FOREX: The dollar was strongly appreciated vis-a-vis the Yen this week (+1.3%). The pair reconsidered its level of 7 months ago. Macroeconomic good performances coming from the United States (manufacturing ISM, request for allowance unemployment…), combined emulously Japanese investors to obtain more advantageous outputs apart from the archipelago at this beginning of financial year, caused the fold of the Yen vis-a-vis the dollar. After having gained 5.3% in March, the cross-country race thus continues its bullish tendency while remaining with the cables of the 94Y in this end of the week. But more generally and in spite of the good performance of the ISM, the dollar ground vis-a-vis the whole of the major currencies lost as the fall testifies some to the Dollar index from 81.9 to 81 over the week. The figures of investigation ADP, published Wednesday, killed the moneychangers who thus fell down on the European currencies.

Thus, the euro and the pound sterling marked beautiful performances with the rise vis-a-vis the dollar and with the Yen. The good performances of the GDP and the manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom as well as the good behavior of unemployment rate in the countries of the zone-Euro caused the return of the appetite for the risk. Lastly, the start of the production in euro zone and the new orders of intermediate goods and capital equipment sent the PMI index to 56.6 in February against 54.2 in January. The euro thus gained 150 pips over the week vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.3555$, and 325 pips vis-a-vis the Yen with 127.25Y. Even report for the sterling which passed by again with the top of the symbolic mark of the 1.50$ (+372 pips with 1.5264$).

But the most important rise was on the eurchf which literally “exploded in flight” after rumors on a forthcoming intervention of Central Bank Suisse (BNS). It would also seem that Central Bank sold an significant amount of Swiss franc with an aim of stopping an excessive appreciation by giving a clear signal to the market. The Swiss National Bank proceeded to no declaration after this fall of CHF. The euro thus flew away of 350 pips in less than 10 minutes yesterday afternoon (17h30), passing from 1.4144 to 1.4410.

Finally the Canadian dollar continues its progression vis-a-vis the dollar and approaches more and more the parity with 1 per 1. The Canadian dollar is reinforced in this moment on two elements. The first comes from the macroeconomic good performances of Canada, as one could noted this week with the GDP. The second element comes from the inflation of the barrel of oil which represents the largest part of exports in Canada and which thus reinforces the Canadian dollar. Thus, the loonie lost 1.5% over the week with 1.0118$CAD after having touched 1.0065 with low Thursday.

THE NEXT WEEK: Among the macro-economic flow of advertisements to come, one will note index ISM nonmanufacturing Monday in the United States; advertisement of interest rates on Monday night in Australia; the speech of the EDF Wednesday and finally advertisements of interest rate in the United Kingdom and in the zone-Euro Thursday,

TRADE OF THE WEEK: Long AUD/JPY

The course took again its trend bull started since the beginning of 2009. It returned this week on its higher annual after having created a phase of fold. Several factors militate in favor of an appreciation of the Australian dollar in the days to come. First of all the bank of Australia (RBA) should further increase its directing rate the next week of 0.25 point. Moreover, the rise of the raw materials these last days and in particular of gold supports the appreciation of a currency “raw materials” like the AUD. Lastly, the renewal of optimism on the stock markets should contribute to standpoint in curry trade whose AUD is a reference to the purchase. Dimensioned yen, the aversion with the risk inevitably harms the Japanese currency.

From a technical point of view, the cross-country race now broke a key level of retracement to 85.35. The next important level is thus established to 92.60. The 90.00 will have before to be broken which represents our primary goal.

On achète sur repli à 86.00. Objectif à 90.00. Stop à 84.70.

AUD /JPY over 18 months