If you pay attention to trading techniques, then you probably have heard of a little thing we like to call Forex scalping .But there are several things that newer Forex scalpers must take into consideration.
1. Always ask if it's allowed.
This is the first and biggest thing that you need to do when scalping Forex. Many users try this technique and make huge sums of money only to find that their account has been deleted! This is because many brokers tend to look down upon Forex scalping. But why you ask? To know the answer to this question, you need to know a little more about how a brokerage ultimately works. Most brokers trade against their customers. Some of the bigger companies have workers that do nothing except taking positions against their traders. This hedging allows the company to easily triple or quadruple their profits. When a persons scalps Forex, the person on the other side can't take the correct position in time. Along with the fact that many scalpers trade with a 95% accuracy. This severly hampers their profits. So many call it cheating the market. Even though we all know that it is virtually impossible to do so. So always make sure your brokerage allows you to trade with this amazing style! I like to call and talk to a manager or someone important. I have asked people on the chat if scalping forex was allowed, they all said that it was. Then when I traded, I had emails telling me to either slow down or be kicked out. So give them a call, it was well worth it.
2. Scalping in numbers is the secret!
Remember earlier when I told you that scalping a single pair won't make you much money? Have you ever heard of the saying, "There's power in numbers?" Well this is a scientific fact, that has been proven over and over again. When you scalp a pair make sure that you purchase a high amount. This is to maximize your profits. So if your trade makes 2 pips you can make upwards of a couple hundred to a couple thousand dollars.
3. Be careful.
This is probably going to be one of the most important tips ever. Along with the quick profits, you can and most likely will come across a couple big losses on this magical Forex scalping journey! This is why you have to be able to accept these losses. Trading on a small scale can be easier for some. I always suggest that newer traders should really try to scalp on a demo account. Get comfortable with trading on a short term scale. I would advise that you should only scalp on a live account when you feel 100% comfortable with every trade. Imagine the demo account being your money. Imagine taking a huge loss in real life when you make a mistake. When you feel fully comfortable with everything even after a big loss, then you are ready grasshopper.
4. Scalp the Forex market with a plan!
This is the best way to avoid losses during your adventure. Use that demo account that we talked about earlier to find a suitable set of indicators or oscillators or even both! The demo account allows you to trade in a real time setting while trying out different systems. This can greatly increase your odds of making a good profit. Try every single combination of technical indicators. Do this until you find a pair that you like. Once you find one then you will truly be on your Forex scalping journey.
In this post, we will go through some of the forex scalping strategies so that you can put them to use for your trading.
When it comes to scalping the market, there are a few factors you have to put in mind.
* You are going to have low risk reward ratio. When you are scalping the market, you are only looking for profit around 15 to 20 pips but it is hard to find entry with low stop loss less than your profit. Therefore you are going to lost more than you can make for every loss trade.
* To compensate for that, you need to have a high winning probability for forex scalping to be feasible for your account.
Here are some forex scalping system that you can use:
* Look for key support and resistance: As price usually are repelled by the key support or resistance level, there are a high chance that you can enter a trade opposite to the current movement trying to make profit from the repulsion.
What are the key support and resistance levels?
* Pivots: pivot trading are used by big dog and it usually provides very strong support or resistance and this is where you can enter your trade.
* Fibonacci Extension: Fibonacci also serve as good level of support and resistance especially the 0.318, 0.5 and 0.618 level. “Keep a LOOKOUT for them”
* Past Highs and Lows: You need to know that the previous high will now turns into your new support and previous low will now turns into your new resistance.
With the understanding of these important support and resistance levels, you can now setup your own forex scalping system with these levels in mind.
Forex scalping is one of the most profitable techniques in forex trading. To perform forex scalping, you will only have to open and close your trading positions for a very short period of time. If done right, you will be able to generate profits easily. Although you may only earn a small amount, the times you will work here are shorter. So, imagine getting a few dollars for one minute of work. One of the reasons why there are people who try forex scalping is because it is quick in nature. The profits that are gained can build up really fast. In addition, you do not have to risk your money because since it will not cause a huge differential in the prices for buying and selling transactions. Therefore, most people view this as a safe technique.
If you want to do forex scalping, you should know the rules here. You should be able to exit your position speedily especially if the movement of the market does not appear to be in your favor. You will have to make quite a number of forex scalping trading transactions for one day alone. Usually, you can perform ten up to a hundred or even more if you want. You should not pray that the direction of the market will turn around and do not hold on to a position that is clearly losing.
Now that you are well aware of the rules, you will have to focus on your objective, which is to buy or sell a currency pair at the ask or bid price. To profit, you will have to sell them for a little higher pips. Here, you will have to make sure that you have a well devised exit strategy in forex scalping so that you will not accumulate large losses.
Most of those who make use of the forex scalping strategy utilize one minute, five minutes or hourly charts. Also, they have to select a good brokerage company that will provide the best platform so that they can execute their orders effectively. If you want to be a part of forex scalping, you can follow the step by step process here. The first procedure in forex scalping is to visit a reliable website that lets you check the release time for the important data. Next is to take note of the previous day’s open, close, low and high positions. Then, you should be able to make out the candlestick studies, which can be found on the daily charts.
After you have identified the candlestick readings for your forex scalping, you will have to classify the major trend lines including the support and resistance in the charts. From here, you will be able to discover the sentiments of the market for the day, whether it is bullish or bearish. Proceed by going to the hourly charts where you will once again have to find out the support and resistance. On the hourly chart, you will have to watch out for the candlestick formation. Now the last step for forex scalping requires you to regulate your risk to an entry level. This should be done as soon as you are 10 pips in the cash.
Actually, forex scalping is not hard to implement given that you have correctly invested your time in making researches about this particular strategy. You should not venture into this market if you are not prepared. In reality, this is much safer than the other forex methods and this is one of the main causes why this technique is attractive for the traders.
You may have read that many traders use the average true range for setting their stop losses. The reason is that the average true range is a fantastic measure of volatility and market noise.
Very simply, the average true range (ATR) determines a security’s volatility over a given period. That is, the tendency of a security to move, in either direction.
More specifically, the average true range is the (moving) average of the true range for a given period. The true range is the greatest of the following:
# The difference between the current high and the current low
# The difference between the current high and the previous close
# The difference between the current low and the previous close
If the current high-low range is large, chances are it will be used as the True Range. If the current high-low range is small, it is likely that one of the other two methods would be used to calculate the True Range. The last two possibilities usually arise when the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a potential gap down or limit move) or the previous close is lower than the current low (signaling a potential gap up or limit move). To ensure positive numbers, absolute values were applied to differences.
Calculation:
True Range is the greatest of the following three values:
* difference between the current maximum and minimum (high and low);
* difference between the previous closing price and the current maximum;
* difference between the previous closing price and the current minimum.
The indicator of Average True Range is a moving average of values of the true range.
Introduction:
Alligator indicator consists of 3 lines. They are Moving Averages with various parameters. Here they are:
The First line, or the chap of alligator, is a line of balance to the considerable period of time. It's used for the chart constructing - 13 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 8 bars to the future. The Green line, or the lips of alligator, is the line of balance for the considerable period of time, which is one more step less - 5 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 3 bars to the future. The Red line, or the teeth of alligator, is the line of balance for the considerable period of time, which is one step less - 8 period smoothed shifting average, moved on 5 bars to the future.
Interpretation :
How to interpret the lines? When all of them are jolloped, it means that the "Alligator" is sleeping, and the more it sleeps the more hungry it gets. Of course, when it wakes up after long sleep, it's very hungry and starts "hunting for food", which is price, till it is glutted. As soon as it happens, it looses interest to the food, which is price, and then the balance lines meet at the same point. It's when you should fix your profit. It's time to close all positions and wait till Alligator awakes up next time.
Awesome Oscillator Technical Indicator (AO) is a 34-period simple moving average, plotted through the middle points of the bars (H+L)/2, which is subtracted from the 5-period simple moving average, built across the central points of the bars (H+L)/2. It shows us quite clearly what’s happening to the market driving force at the present moment.
AO signals to buy:
* "Saucer" is the signal to buy which appears when the direction changes from the downward to upward with the second column is lower than the first one and is colored red and the third column is higher than the second and is colored green. It is generated when the bar chart is higher than the nought line.
* "Nought line crossing" is a signal to buy which appears when the bar chart passes from the negative values to that of positive. Two columns are necessary for it: one of them has to be below the nought line while another has to cross it.
* "Two tops" signal is generated when the bar chart values are below the nought line and when a top pointing down is followed by another one which is higher thus closer to the nought line. If the bar chart crosses the nought line in the area between the tops, the signal to buy is not generated. If an additional higher top is formed and the bar chart has not crossed the nought line, an additional signal to buy will appear.
Calculation:
Awesome Oscillator bar graph is a difference between 5-periods simple moving average, built on central points of the bar (H+L)/2 and 34-periods simple moving average built on central points of the bar (H+L)/2.
MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH + LOW) / 2 AO = SMA (MEDIAN PRICE, 5) - SMA (MEDIAN PRICE, 34)
Where:
MEDIAN PRICE - median price;
HIGH - maximum bar price;
LOW - minimum bar price;
SMA - simple moving average.
After AC lets talk about Accumlation/Distribution(AD). The more expanded the volume of trade is the more noticeable the price changes will be. Accumulation/Distribution Technical Indicator is determined by the changes in price and volume. This indicator is a less commonly used variant of the indicator On Balance Volume. When the Accumulation/Distribution indicator grows, it means accumulation of a currency, as the overwhelming share of the sales volume is related to an upward price movement. When the indicator drops, it means distribution (or selling) of the currency, as most of sales take place during the downward price trend.
Divergences between the A/D indicator and the currency price indicate the upcoming change of prices. As a rule, in this case, the price tendency moves in the direction in which the indicator moves. For instance, if the indicator is growing, and the price of the security is falling, a soon turnaround of price is expected.
Calculation:
* Description: Accumulation Distribution (AD) is a comparison of the price movement and the current range, with the result being used to weight the current volume.
* Calculation:
AD = ((Close - Open) / (High - Low)) * Volume
Trading Use:
Accumulation Distribution is usually used as a divergence indicator, with long entries signaled by bullish divergence, and short entries signaled by bearish divergence. Accumulation Distribution can also be used as an exit indicator, by showing the end (or the weakening) of the current trend.
Accelerator/Decelerator (AC) is an oscillator that measures activation or deactivation of the driving force on the market. It changes its direction before any changes in the direction of the price take place. This oscillator has much in common with Awesome Oscillator, but unlike AO, the crossing of the zero line is not a buy/sell signal.
Accelerator/Decelerator is mostly used to predict the change of the driving force on the market. When AC is at the zero line it means that the driving force is at balance with the acceleration. When AC crosses the zero line and goes up or down the only thing that should be traced is the change of the color of the bars.
Interpretation:
The nought line is basically the spot where the driving force is at balance with the acceleration. If Acceleration/Deceleration is higher than nought, then it is usually easier for the acceleration to continue the upward movement (and vice versa in cases when it is below nought). Unlike in case with Awesome Oscillator, it is not regarded as a signal when the nought line is crossed. The only thing that needs to be done to control the market and make decisions is to watch for changes in color. To save yourself serious reflections, you must remember: you can not buy with the help of the Accelerator Decelerator Oscillator, when the current column is colored red, and you can not sell, when the current column is colored green.
Methods of use:
1. When the chart is above the zero line and there are two green bars, it is a signal to buy.
2. When the chart is below the zero line and there are two red bars, it is a signal to sell.
Now we going to discuss that how we can use moving average to out advantage. As we already aware moving average is a lagging forex indicator which means that it is slow and it can only tell you what had just happened instead of telling you where the price is likely to move. However, by utilizing this lagging forex indicator together with repetitive price patterns, you can then form a reliable forex trading system to use.
If you have been seen a forex chart, you will notice that the price is constantly fluctuating up and down making it tough for you to visualize price action. What moving average does for you is to give you a visualizing line that can allow you to see the price movement.
Other than using the gradient of the moving average as a trend indicating tool, you can also make use of this forex indicator to place your trade. One of my favourite method of using moving average is the crossover.
This is what you need to do with this forex indicator:
Step 1: Set up a long term EMA (50 EMA)
Step 2: Set up a short term EMA (20 EMA)
Step 3: Observe the crossover of these two lines
If the short term moving average is above the long term moving average, this is known as the golden cross and it usually indicates that the trend is moving up. If the short term moving average is below the long term moving average, this is know as the death cross and it usually indicates that the trend is moving down.
This does not means that you should trade every crossover as it can be very devastating to your account. What you need to do is to make use of trend line or trend wall to help you place your trade. Remember this, you should only trade when there is a trend line break. If you are looking for forex indicator to use for your trading, you must add moving average to your toolbox.
Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. Moving average Forex indicator is the average price for a given time interval in relation to other prices during the similar time periods. For instance the closing prices over a 5-day period would have a moving average of the total of the five closing prices divided by five.
A moving average is an average of a shifting body of data, as seen from its name. For example, a 10-day moving average is got by adding closing prices for the last 10 periods being measured and dividing by 10. The term "moving" is used as only the last 10 days are used in the measurement. That's why the data body is averaged shifted forward with every next trading day.
The moving average line will be placed directly in the price shifting chart. The moving average is measured with a definite predefined period. The sensibility of the moving average is weaker if the period is longer. The probability of false signals is higher if the period is shorter.
Here are few warning signs for forex trading to save yourself from any fraud dealing:
1. Stay Away From Opportunities That Sound Too Good to Be True.
2. Avoid Any Company that Predicts or Guarantees Large Profits.
3. Stay Away From Companies That Promise Little or No Financial Risk.
4. Don't Trade on Margin Unless You Understand What It Means.
5. Question Firms That Claim To Trade in the "Interbank Market"
6. Be Wary of Sending or Transferring Cash on the Internet, By Mail or Otherwise. Be especially alert to the dangers of trading on-line.
7. Currency Scams Often Target Members of Ethnic Minorities.
8. Be Sure You Get the Company's Performance Track Record.
9. Don't Deal With Anyone Who Won't Give You Their Background.
After discussing advantages of Automated Trading now lets talk about few disadvantages:
1. Success Is Not Guaranteed:
Although you may use the automated Forex trading software, there are no guaranteed successes by just depending on the software itself to make you earn high profits of money. Since the trading market depends and directed by some factors such as the economy, the political state of a country or the future strategies of big companies, a trader is still required to have some knowledge and an amount of study before setting up their trading commands. As stated earlier, the system can be programmed by you to follow your individual needs. It means that the automated Forex trading system is not exactly mechanical that you don’t need to know anything at all.
2. You Will Miss The Learning Opportunity:
If you like the use of an automated trading software system, the thing is you will miss all the knowledge other non-automated traders know when they don’t use an automated system in Forex trading. The automated Forex trading system also does not tell you how it is running. But you can still understand it if you go look up the results.
Okay, these days Automated Forex Trading is getting popular so lets learn about it. Automated Forex Trading operates precisely the way the name suggests. An extremely sophisticated piece of software utilizes complex formulas to choose the best time to trade currency. Then, depending on the type of software you have, it will either indicate the action you need to take or make the trade automatically for you. You surely understand how exhausted to monitor the price movement in forex market for the whole day just to wait for the right moment to do the transaction. Few other advantages of Automated Forex Trading are as following:
1. Not Exhausted
The best thing about the system is that it earns money for you without requiring you to watch over them as they run. As the name implies, an Automated Trading Software of Forex simply means a software system that does foreign currency trading automatically without having the trader to supervise his trading all the time. The software is already programmed in a format of automated trading bots. Everything that is required by a trader is just an internet connection and a computer to get the system run! And an account to start trading of course.
2.Accuracy
Trading Software forces you to trade based on concrete rules. This eliminates the emotional and psychological aspects of trading, which I have always thought is a good thing. The mind is very complicated and it is very easy to see things that aren't really there or to find reasons why you think you should enter a trade or take profit or cut your losses. Many times you will get caught up in the moment, especially when volatility is high. You see the price move quickly and want to jump in and chase without any clear entry signals. Or you think price is way to high, it can't go any higher, but then it does. Trading software eliminates all of these problems.
3. Uptodate Information:
The Forex Automatic Trading Software allows the traders to setup the strategy of their trading systems and the software will automatically generate trades according to the setup. The Forex trading system is able to run on a number of factors at once such as the multiple technical indicators and the market conditions. You can generate signals according to the custom trading systems that you set up. You can also set the system to create orders automatically and later perform trades when a signal of buy or sell is generated. The automated Forex trading software is also programmed to allow you to visually back test your trading systems. You can see them on a historical chart data where you can verify if your trading strategies are running effectively.
FOREX trading can be done via day trading, but a very specialized form of it. Day trading is concerned with opening and closing market positions, or buying and selling securities on the same day. It is the job of day traders to buy and sell stocks rapidly throughout the day, and hope that, for the short time they own the stocks, which can be only a few minutes, or even seconds, their value will continue to climb or fall in order for them to make quick profits. However, day trading is a very risky form of trading, which can result in considerable financial losses over a short period of time. Their losses are all the more important, as day traders generally buy stocks on borrowed money, hoping to reap profits, but standing the risk of losses as well.
Day trading is not illegal or unethical, but it can be very risky. The bottom line is that day traders should not risk the money that they cannot afford to lose. Large losses can come as a result of owning stocks overnight, because the risk that their prices may change over this interval is extremely high. This is the reason why true day trading is not concerned with owning the stocks for more than a few hours, and definitely not from one day to the next.
Day trading is also a very stressful job, not only on account of the huge loss perspective, but also because it requires great concentration on the part of the traders, when they have to watch price fluctuations and ticker quotes in order to spot market trends.
The same potential for huge losses is present with FOREX trading as well. Traders have access to high margins with FOREX, which means they only need small outlays of cash to control large amounts of currency. This is why FOREX traders stand to gain huge profits, just as they run the risk of huge losses.
FOREX trading is unique for a number of reasons. One of them is that this market is impossible to manipulate, as it is free of any external controls. Another advantage is represented by the fact that the FOREX market is the largest liquid financial market in the world. The trading performed daily on this market reaches almost two trillion US dollars. The possibility to open and close positions in the market extremely quickly, due to its liquidity, is yet another advantage of FOREX trading.
Not all investors participate in the FOREX market for long-term hedge positions. There are FOREX traders who utilize margin trading in their attempt to gain large profits over a short period of time. This is the reason why the FOREX market has been associated with speculative investments. However, this combination of short-term and long-term investors, each with different investment strategies, generates an attractive environment.
After discussing advantages of forex trading we should consider disadvantages as well:
1. Leverage
Today, you can leverage your investment with an online forex broker by 200, or even 400 to 1 and this creates tremendous profit potential. But it's a fact that most traders actually over leverage and lose.
With leverage you need to be very accurate with the execution of your trading signals and very careful with your stop loss protection. When trading on leverage if you are not careful, a quick equity spike will wipe your position.
In stock trading you can buy and hold and you only risk what you have paid for the stock and so long as it comes back you make a profit and you can wait.
In forex trading its different - you have losses that are open ended and they pile up quickly. You can't just sit back - you need to take action.
As most traders lack discipline, they very often hope a position turns around and don't have a get out point. A small loss soon ends up being a big loss and their equity is gone. Most traders hate admitting their wrong - they want the big profit potential leverage gives them but don't think about the downside.
2. Volatility
Forex prices are volatile and make big moves everyday - combine this with leverage and you have a powerful tool for profits which of course can also cause losses.
Most traders have no idea about how volatility affects their trading and how to deal with it. Most forex traders have never heard of, let alone understand "standard deviation of price" yet it's an essential part of any traders forex education.
You have to know what is normal volatility and what isn't, to have any hope of succeeding with your forex trading strategy.
Most traders make the error of placing stops to close to their entry point and they get taken out by normal volatility and this is because they are normally over leveraged. Most traders try so hard to avoid risk they actually create it for themselves.
There are many advantages to trading spot foreign exchange as opposed to trading stocks and futures. Below are listed those main advantages.
1. Bid/Ask Spread rates
Spread rates have tightened dramatically in the last years. Most online forex brokers offer a spread of 5 pips on EURUSD which is the most widely traded and liquid currency pair.
In the futures market spreads can vary anywhere between 5 and 9 pips and can become even larger under illiquid market conditions (which tends to happen substantially more often in futures currencies).
2. Margins requirements
Usually a foreign exchange trading with a 1% margin is available. In layman's terms that means a trader can control a position of a value of USD 1'000'000 with a mere USD 10'000 in his account. By comparison, futures margins are not only constantly changing but are also often quite sizeable. Stocks are generally traded on a non-margined basis and when they are, it can be as restrictive as 50% or so.
3. 24 hour market
Foreign exchange market trading occurs over a 24 hour period picking up in Asia around 24:00 CET Sunday evening and coming to an end in the United States on Friday around 23:00 CET. Although ECNs (electronic communications networks) exist for stock markets and futures markets (like Globex) that supply after hours trading, liquidity is often low and prices offered can often be uncompetitive.
4. No Limit up / limit down
Futures markets contain certain constraints that limit the number and type of transactions a trader can make under certain price conditions. When the price of a certain currency rises or falls beyond a certain pre-determined daily level traders are restricted from initiating new positions and are limited only to liquidating existing positions if they so desire. This mechanism is meant to control daily price volatility but in effect since the futures currency market follows the spot market anyway, the following day the futures market may undergo what is called a 'gap' or in other words the futures price will re-adjust to the spot price the next day. In the OTC market no such trading constraints exist permitting the trader to truly implement his trading strategy to the fullest extent. Since a trader can protect his position from large unexpected price movements with stop-loss orders the high volatility in the spot market can be fully controlled.
5. Sell before you buy
Equity brokers offer very restrictive short-selling margin requirements to customers. This means that a customer does not possess the liquidity to be able to sell stock before he buys it. Margin wise, a trader has exactly the same capacity when initiating a selling or buying position in the spot market. In spot trading when you're selling one currency, you're necessarily buying another.
6. Trade Forex 24 hours a day
Forex market never sleeps. In Forex trading, you do not need to wait the market to open, you can always response to world latest movement and news immediately.
Every Sunday 5.00pm in New York, Forex market starts its week from Sydney, followed by Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, and New York. In Forex tradng, you can always response to the market trend a lot faster than in any other trading market.
Leverage trading in Forex market
Also, with the flexibility of Forex market trading time, you can work on your trade in Forex during your free time. This means you can start small and work as part time trader before going full time on FX trading.
Making “anger” trades after either having a bad loss or making a bad decision is known to every trader, a beginner and a pro. As soon as emotions get a grip of a trader, useless trades are almost inevitable. Anger and revenge trades are so fatal that can wipe out a forex trading account within minutes. How to identify what triggers trader to emotional trading and what is the way to get out of self-destruction pass immediately with a minimal losses?
Emotional trades in forex happen often and whenever trader looses the control, the account gets wiped out fast. Even with reliable trading strategy, strict discipline and good money management it is easy to become emotional after making bad choices, start increasing size to make it back, moving stops, averaging down, creating excuses to continue trading, look for opportunities that are not even there.
The biggest problem of all is when it comes to crazy trading, you don’t even know you are doing it! So it is up to you to come with a right technique to snap out of it.
Below are tips on how to stop the self-destruction before it actually began:
1. Take a Break
After three consecutive losses the best thing you can do is to quit trading for a day. Some traders even have a “punishment” included in their trading plan: lost a trade, no forex for a week! Market is not going to disappear and tomorrow is another day with million forex opportunities. Instead of anger trades, your best option is to take a breath and give yourself a break.
2. Decrease Size
Make a substantial decrease in size traded. This way you will be able to take your mind off serious trading for a while and become sane again. Give yourself time and go back to appropriate size trading only when you are truly ready.
3. Add Money You Didn’t Win
Consider putting the amount equal to the winning trade you didn’t take in your forex account. To see the money in the account will make you feel better and think rationally again.
4. Add Amount You Lost
If you lost a trade, you might want to add the amount you have lost back to the account. It is surprising how easy it is to become normal again when you don’t see your account with losses.
5. Use Visual Effects!
Make a poster or a note which will help you to remember not to make irrational decisions after bad trades. The note will help you to stay rational, take only the trades that you fully understand and pass on all the rest.
6. Trade With Reason
Psychology is one of the most important factors influencing success or failure in forex trading. Make sure that you have right psychological reasons to enter a trade.
7. Be Military Precise
Be disciplined. In fact, be army disciplined! It is important to enter the forex market only when all your criteria are met. This way emotion has nothing to do with your decision to enter a trade.
8. Confess and Talk It All Out
Confess about your losses to someone nearby or even over the net, a fellow trader or someone who can understand your pain. Talking helps to free your mind from the negative thoughts about loss and bring you back to reality and objectivity.
As a beginner in forex trading you might wonder which analysis suits you best – technical or fundamental. Is it better to concentrate on one of them, or rather combine the two for better understanding? What do other traders use to analyze price movements?
Technical analysis uses forex market data, such as prices, volume, etc., together with technical indicators, such as relative strength index, moving averages, Fibonacci, etc., to decide the trading positions and forecast future price movements.
Technical analysis is based on:
1. examination of chart formations
2. differentiation of trends
3. identification of buying and selling prospects
4. analyzing highest and lowest price of a currency
5. understanding of opening/closing prices and volume of transactions
Depending on the trading style, forex trader can use technical analysis on a daily basis (5 minute, 15 minute, hourly), weekly or monthly basis.
Technical analysis uses the assumption that all market information and possible currency volatility can be obtained from the price chain. Forex trader who uses technical analysis believes in three fundamental assumptions – the market moves according to all factors, the price movement is purposeful and connected to these events, the history tends to repeat itself over and over again. In other words a trader looks back at what has already happened and makes decisions based on the believe that volatility will generally have the same pattern of the past.
Fundamental analysis uses financial news and economic news, such earnings and consumer reports, economic data releases, interest rates updates etc., together with non financial information, such as political news, weather broadcasts to determine the trades.
Fundamental analysis involves the analysis of current political and economical situation in the country of the selected currency. Generally, the country’s economy relies on the following factors:
1. Central Bank’s interest rates
2. National unemployment data
3. Tax policy
4. Inflation rate
5. Political unrest or transition
Forex trader who uses fundamental analysis studies the external factors which may affect the supply and demand of the market. Fundamental analysis in forex assumes that the market is unpredictable and the information can’t be immediately obtained; the currency prices are inconsistent and will change according to the future economic conditions.
So which analysis is more vital? Can a trader use only one in order to succeed or it is important to combine the two together?
The answer is simple – don’t limit yourself to one kind. Fundamental and technical analysis complete one another and both are vital for successful forex trading.
Forex trading involves analyzing and predicting. Whenever you enter a trade you should have a slight idea of where the price is going before reversing. According to this guess, you are able to set a profit target for each trade. Forex traders set daily and weekly targets based on the experience. Why is it important to know the target? Does setting a target limit the maximum profit possibilities? Is knowing your target necessary for the success?
The reason to set targets is to be able to close a trade (either automatically or manually) whenever the predicted profit target is reached. Some traders may feel that setting a target limits the possibility of a maximum profit. In order to avoid the greed taking over your senses, it might be better to set slightly longer term targets, let’s say weekly.
Experienced traders don’t just wake up in the morning and say, let’s make 25 pips today and that’s it. Setting a target should not be based on thin air. The prediction should be derived from your trading system, which includes lots of parameters and overall past experience. Every day the market is full of surprises. In order to give a optimal estimate of the target, a forex trader should evaluate the situation and decide whether to let a trade run longer or not.
Consider target as a monitoring tool of your success; however do not get caught up in making a specific amount of cash per week or month. It is important to monitor your trading performance, and in case the numbers fall under the red line, you will know that something needs to be fixed.
The problem with setting daily targets is high expectation, eagerness to trade and a possibility of overtrading in order to achieve the goal. A trader might consider taking marginal setups rather than waiting patiently for a profitable trade. After all, quality is what matters, not quantity.
Long term targets (such as quarter or annual) might be much more useful for a forex trader. This way the weekly and monthly target ranges can be integrated to ensure the longer period targets. Besides, keep in mind that even very good strategies can have bad months, let alone weeks and days! Without considering all the factors, you contribute to the increase of a failure rate.
Setting profit targets depend on the trading style and strategy a forex trader uses. Some traders prefer not to use profit targets at all, because it goes against the all-known rule “cut your losses short, let your profits run.” By using the targets, a trader may take the profit and watch the market continue on. These traders develop a very strong discipline which involves letting the winning trades run with a trailing stop. This increases the chance to maximize good trades and not miss a good ride.
Despite all, profit targets are useful to many forex traders. Since the market is full of opportunities, it might not be such a bad idea to snatch the profit when it is right under your nose, rather than taking a risk of losing not only the possible profit, but all other funds in the account!
Last, but not least, what can be used to determine possible profit targets? Here are some of ideas:
1. Use trend lines, fibo expansion tool, previous highs and lows values
2. Measure method that is used with chart (price) pattern
3. Improve with experience! With knowledge comes great understanding of a market and possible outcomes. Be patient, learn and practice.
Forex trading is risky; however with the right money management, risk management and discipline you can reduce the risk to the minimum. If forex is done wisely, you can spot tones of profitable opportunities.
