The euro has fallen on its low level for four years Monday vis-a-vis the dollar, under 1.23 dollar, before rebounding, pushing the Ministers of Finance of the euro zone to be promised to redouble efforts to reduce their deficits.
Around 21:00 GMT (23H00 in Paris), the euro was worth 1.2394 dollar against 1.2359 dollar Friday evening.
The European single currency also went back vis-a-vis the yen to 114.66 yens against 114.28 yens Friday.
The dollar was stabilized vis-a-vis the Japanese currency with 92.51 yens against 92.47 yens Friday evening.
The European currency fell to 1.2235 dollar towards 02:35 GMT, its low level since April 18th, 2006, before rebounding clearly.
“I do not see anything concrete which changed in the situation” which weakens the euro, Jessica Hoversen estimated, of Total MF, estimating that the rebound of the currency concerned the “profit-takings” after its fall.
“The market remains very bear with respect to the euro”, she added. “So much of problems remain as for the question of the debt, and people are anxious consequences of the austerity measures on the economy.
“At a stretch, a return during birth of the euro -- with 1.18 dollar-- and even the parity, seem more of the scenarios so extreme only that”, their fellow-members of Mizuho Corporate Bank increased.
The investors fear that the problems of debt in euro zone weigh in the long run on the economic revival in Europe, and still doubt the effectiveness of the support plan of 750 billion euros decided one week ago for the countries which would be in difficulty.
The German chancellor Angela Merkel thus estimated Sunday that the euro zone had done nothing but “save time” with the plans of assistance in Greece and that to avoid the contagion with other countries in difficulty.
Monday, the Ministers for Finance of the euro zone, at this meeting in Brussels, promised to redouble efforts to reduce their deficits and to thus stop the crisis of confidence which continues to shake the monetary Union.
Their leader, Jean-Claude Juncker, was said “worried” by the speed with which the value of the euro dropped lately, but not anxious on the other hand of its current level.
Indeed, this fall contains a good news for the euro zone: “the depreciation of the euro will start again the competitiveness of the member countries and will start again exports, (...) whole while making them more competitive vis-a-vis foreign competition on their national markets”, according to Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Around 21:00 GMT, delivers it British dropped vis-a-vis the European currency, to 85.52 pence for one euro, as vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.4489 dollar. It fell to 1.4252 dollar towards 02:35 GMT, its low level since the end of March 2009.
The Swiss currency dropped a little vis-a-vis the euro, to 1.4019 Swiss franc for one euro, after having reached a new higher history with 1.3991 Swiss franc the day before around 18:50 GMT, crossing for the first time the threshold of 1.40 Swiss franc for one euro.
The Swiss currency dropped vis-a-vis the dollar, to 1.1308 Swiss franc.
The Chinese currency finished with 6.8277 yuans for a dollar against 6.8266 yuans Friday.
The euro was posted in fall, Thursday at the end of the European exchanges, vis-a-vis a dollar protected by its will have value-refuge, while fears were reinforced on a world deceleration pulled by the United States.
The currencies of the emergent economies also made the expenses of the climate of concern.
Around 16:00 GMT (18H00 in Paris), the euro was exchanged to 1.3433 dollar, against 1.3495 Wednesdays around 21:00 GMT.
The European single currency moved back vis-a-vis the Japanese currency, with 134.84 yens, against 134.91 the day before.
The dollar gained ground vis-a-vis the yen, with 100.44 yens for a dollar against 99.99 yens Wednesday evening.
The euro maintained its fall, vis-a-vis a resistant dollar in spite of the publication of figures showing a moderation of American inflation in September, and thus the possibility of a new fall of rates of the Federal fund, and those passably depressing of the industrial production which recorded in September its retreat the most marked since December 1974.
During the Asian exchanges, the euro had fallen vis-a-vis the dollar to 1.3346 dollar, not far from its low since March 2007, had reached last Friday.
After two meetings of euphoria, the world Stock Exchanges took again their tumble Wednesday and evolved in teeth of saw, always tetanized Thursday by the prospects for economic recession while the European Union was declared determined to stimulate the growth and employment but without generalized revival program.
In the United States, the American officials multiplied the warnings Wednesday: lower consumption, real crisis which “did not touch the bottom” and recovery which “is not for tomorrow”.
A person in charge of the EDF had even released the word as of Tuesday: the United States seems to be already entered in “recession”.
Collateral victims of the reserve of the investors to take risks, the “emergent currencies”, objects of speculation because of their strong output, see themselves from now on forsaken.
“The emerging markets remain exposed with the lack of visibility on the financial sector and with the effects of the rescue plans” the analysts of BNP Paribas summarized.
The Hungarian forint has still taken down Thursday, falling to the new ones low for more than two years vis-a-vis the euro and to the dollar.
The book Turkish joined again with levels more seen since October 2006, crossing the threshold of 1.50 book for a dollar.
The Mexican peso and the South-African Rand were maintained on their levels moreover low reached these last days vis-a-vis the dollar, and close to historical records to the fall vis-a-vis the euro.
The British currency was in rise vis-a-vis the European currency, to 77.88 pence for one euro, in fall vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.7239 dollar for a book.
The Swiss currency returned vis-a-vis the euro to 1.5209 Swiss franc for one euro, and dropped vis-a-vis the dollar with 1.1333 Swiss franc for a dollar.
The ounce of gold was worth 802.50 dollars with the fixing of the evening against 847 dollars the day before at the evening.
The Chinese yuan enclosed with 6.8298 yuans for a dollar against 6.8318 yuans the day before.
THE MARKETS ACTIONS: This week, the international stock markets progressed once again towards their more annual high levels. In spite of one four working days week because of the Easter weekend, the principal world stock exchange places thus confirmed the resumption of confidence in the international investors. First of all, Thursday, a series of good economic indicators made it possible the markets actions to be revived and rebound after two meetings in the red. The figures of exports in Europe, the Manufacturing ISM and the figures of employment in the
In spite of the economic good figures published Thursday, this week will have known a flat. Indeed, the
The energy values they were also pushed by the rise in the price of the barrel of oil and the raw materials this week. The price of the barrel of crude oil is currently negotiated to 85.31$ in
ON THE FOREX: The dollar was strongly appreciated vis-a-vis the Yen this week (+1.3%). The pair reconsidered its level of 7 months ago. Macroeconomic good performances coming from the United States (manufacturing ISM, request for allowance unemployment…), combined emulously Japanese investors to obtain more advantageous outputs apart from the archipelago at this beginning of financial year, caused the fold of the Yen vis-a-vis the dollar. After having gained 5.3% in March, the cross-country race thus continues its bullish tendency while remaining with the cables of the 94Y in this end of the week. But more generally and in spite of the good performance of the ISM, the dollar ground vis-a-vis the whole of the major currencies lost as the fall testifies some to the Dollar index from 81.9 to 81 over the week. The figures of investigation ADP, published Wednesday, killed the moneychangers who thus fell down on the European currencies.
Thus, the euro and the pound sterling marked beautiful performances with the rise vis-a-vis the dollar and with the Yen. The good performances of the GDP and the manufacturing activity in the
But the most important rise was on the eurchf which literally “exploded in flight” after rumors on a forthcoming intervention of Central Bank Suisse (BNS). It would also seem that Central Bank sold an significant amount of Swiss franc with an aim of stopping an excessive appreciation by giving a clear signal to the market. The Swiss National Bank proceeded to no declaration after this fall of CHF. The euro thus flew away of 350 pips in less than 10 minutes yesterday afternoon (17h30), passing from 1.4144 to 1.4410.
Finally the Canadian dollar continues its progression vis-a-vis the dollar and approaches more and more the parity with 1 per 1. The Canadian dollar is reinforced in this moment on two elements. The first comes from the macroeconomic good performances of
THE NEXT WEEK: Among the macro-economic flow of advertisements to come, one will note index ISM nonmanufacturing Monday in the United States; advertisement of interest rates on Monday night in Australia; the speech of the EDF Wednesday and finally advertisements of interest rate in the United Kingdom and in the zone-Euro Thursday,
TRADE OF THE WEEK: Long AUD/JPY
The course took again its trend bull started since the beginning of 2009. It returned this week on its higher annual after having created a phase of fold. Several factors militate in favor of an appreciation of the Australian dollar in the days to come. First of all the bank of Australia (RBA) should further increase its directing rate the next week of 0.25 point. Moreover, the rise of the raw materials these last days and in particular of gold supports the appreciation of a currency “raw materials” like the AUD. Lastly, the renewal of optimism on the stock markets should contribute to standpoint in curry trade whose AUD is a reference to the purchase. Dimensioned yen, the aversion with the risk inevitably harms the Japanese currency.
From a technical point of view, the cross-country race now broke a key level of retracement to 85.35. The next important level is thus established to 92.60. The 90.00 will have before to be broken which represents our primary goal.
On achète sur repli à 86.00. Objectif à 90.00. Stop à 84.70.
AUD /JPY over 18 months
As you could note it on the many Forex forums, the question of the taxation is one of the questions which makes the most movement. Indeed, everyone is questioned, everyone has an opinion or experience to make divide, but little can be prided to offer answers which can make authority. We would not allot such a merit but endeavoured to clear up this bulky and complicated subject in order to facilitate the life of the traders.
While referring to various sites and by questioning in particular the Head office of Taxes (IGD), we can offer some brief replies right now to you:
1. The legality of Forex
In France, the trading on the foreign exchange market by a French resident answers certain conditions:
a) The broker must be approved by Banque de France.
b) The trading must be done according to the principle of the “spot forex”.
2. To fight the generally accepted ideas
Contrary to the generally accepted ideas, it is not when the trader repatriates its funds on an bank account in France which it becomes taxable. It is the possibility of having these funds which conditions the taxes level.
3. Forms to be used
Concerned with the income tax, under the terms of article 120 of the cgi, the declaration of the incomes of Forex must be done by using the following forms:
O Declaration of opening of account by form 3916.
O Form 2561 (a), line DL or DM for the PV/MV
O Declaration of the statement to defer line 2 TS
O Deduction during six years of the MV of statement Forex via form 2047 of the movable property.
4. Principles of the imposition
It is initially necessary to differentiate the foreign exchange market, of the stock market or future. The most been worth resulting from the trading on Forex must be declared in the register of the BNC (noncommercial benefit), is as nonprofessionals if you have another community activity, that is to say as professionals if it is your principal activity.
It is moreover possible to declare them in the register of the BNC but, because of the complexity which requires the assistance of an accountant, this means is used little.
Contrary to the fixed price of 27%, the income tax makes it possible to deduce all the expenses necessary to the realization from the profits (of the damping of the computer material to the subscriptions with flows via the travelling expenses for formations).
These expenses can represent up to 50% of the entire amount of your more been worth. With final, after having carried out such a declaration, the drawn advantage is largely higher than the fixed price of 27%.
5. Conditions of imposition according to the countries
Contrary to France, where the imposition can until reaching 60%, Switzerland does not impose the most not been worth on the exchange transactions and this, even for nonthe residents. The Belgian legislation is also interesting since the capital incomes are not imposed. On the other hand, the United States, where many brokers are, can impose up to 40%.
On the other hand, if you are resident French and that you carry out trades with a foreign broker, agreements between country exist so that covering is not done twice. For example, if your broker is in the United States, the agreements stipulate that you must declare the interests via the American administration while the statement must be declared in BNC with the French tax authority.
Whatever school of analysis which we belong, most of us are just a few problems with the claim that the effect of prices that all matters relating to trade futures, because the only determinant of the profits or losses of money. We have a very sensible, well thought out justification for forex analysis and our strategy, but if we can not confirm the price action is the sad reality that it is useless.
The technical analysis takes this concept one step further and say that everything is on trade, energy, the same price. In other words, holidays, events, new concessions, statistics and data, as well as economic and political developments into account and focus on the same price. This attitude is justified by the belief that the price action through the media and created a profit hungry traders following reflects all information available to the public at all times, and it is useless to seek the advantage over the market, trying to include all data currently hold. Not only can not be said technical analysts, but also unnecessary, since the prices already incorporate all available information by itself to the interpretation of the best minds and most powerful of the market. Technical analysts are warning us to study the markets, and ignoring everything else, and thus obtain a strong emphasis on the only evidence that matters of value.
Critics addressing technical analysis, while the price does not represent the total amount of bull and bear market does not reflect a consensus, and as such can not be used as the representative views of all stakeholders account. In other words, there is no such thing as a contract. Moreover, they add, even if short term, the price is hard to predict economic events in the long term are clear trends that can easily be achieved through fundamental analysis. Technical analysts defend their school, asking that fundamental analysis is difficult, if not more reliable than mechanical, and more time to complete.
Technical analysis tools applicable to all actions of the price displayed on maps. The indicators used for the production of market behavior or assess all costs to sell and the price structure for the interpretation of the underlying dynamics have been identified. Technical analysis does not claim to be free to create bugs, specific answers to questions in the minds of traders, but intends to identify the scenarios where the potential is a profitable business the longest. Technical bodies have adapted to a culture and used to deal with probabilities, and should be ready for the losses, taking into account necessary.
Let us stop this short study notes that the care in the chaotic environment of the market Forex, methods of money management and emotional control are equally important, if not more important than any kind of strategy and analysis. Learn Forex, we must maintain our capital. And the money management is what we learn to maintain it. With patience and dedication, it is difficult to achieve in Forex, but it does maintain a sense of the dream to swim in pools of gold and silver.
The Foreign Currency Exchange is a stable industry that experiences alterations because of the deviations in the foreign currency conversion rates. You should learn forex from the experience of others. While you aim to study everything out of your forex trading you will not actually recognize how others are creating profits.
To achieve something, you have to continually deal with trade in the forex market. You got to begin and end your trade with respect to the market information and the existing trends at the time of your decision making. Do not stay long expecting the value of the currency to increase to your expectation. It might not work out always. It is better to fix yourself with the market trends.
· Get an idea of the stop loss decision based on the existing situation while you trade. Do not initiate trading while there is a deficiency in liquidity.
· Get an idea of the separate trading systems for the high markets and the low markets. Don’t simply work with just a single trading strategy. Bring out your strategy with a focus and navigate per the market situation.
· Considering the market trend and other factors work in accordance with what your mind states. Decide accordingly on when things are likely bad and which they are right for the trade.
· Differentiate between rumors and real facts in the market. Make your buy and sell decisions accordingly.
· Begin trading after the market has gotten hot in for the day and end your trade before the end of the trading day.
· When it is an over buying of currencies you got to consider ending your trade. Do not do what others are doing all the time. When it is a bull market and the hike is too much it will for sure come down. With changeable foreign currency exchange rates, nothing is going to be steady.
I did not understand during a long time the difference between the various types of brokers existing on the foreign exchange market. The broker term is often used besides with twists because it is not all the time the case. In fact they should be differentiated according to their business model. Currently, there exist three great types of actors on the eForex from which the two last are most accessible to the private individuals:
* - ECN
* - Pure brokers
* - The market makers
The ECN (electronic communication network) are market places. All the operations are carried out directly on the interbank market. It is what one calls “No dealing desk”. Thus, as well as on Euronext for the market action, the book-building is posted. The participants are thus counterpart vis-a-vis the other participants because as you it can to buy, a salesman is needed opposite. The ECN make matcher the orders of their various customers. Do you put yourselves surely the same question that I am posed with the departure, how made one when there is nobody opposite? It is very simple, they appeal has suppliers of liquidities (liquidity provider or LP). These suppliers of liquidities are banks which make it possible to the customers to have an important liquidity and to obtain tight spreads in normal market condition. The prices are posted in real time and thus reflect the prices dimensioned by the various banks. That allows a total transparency of the market by giving access to information to the whole of the participants. Each liquidity provider (supplier of liquidity) posts its prices permanently and can type in the posted liquidity. The disadvantage is that the spreads are not fixed, in particular when volatility increases at the time of important economic advertisements. Sometimes the spread can reach 15 pips on the EUR/USD.
The ECN were reserved a long time for institutional but certain brokers propose this service with the private individuals today. In this last case, the ECN play them same the role of supplier of liquidity. The liquidity is some thus reduced compared to a supplier such as a bank.
The main advantage of the type of operation is that you keep anonymity and that the ECN cannot know of which account comes the giving orders. One cannot thus treat against you, I would reconsider this point later. This is a great advantage in particular for the scalpeurs. You can also decide to place an order between the bid price and the asking price.
The ECN are remunerated by commission on the volume treated by the traders. Often, that is around 10 has 20$ per treated million.
The pure brokers have about same operation as the ECN with the difference that the liquidity suggested to their customers is ensured in all the cases by a supplier of liquidities. This supplier is a bank what thus ensures an important liquidity. The pure brokers are thus of mere intermediary between its customers and the bank. The prices are thus those posted by the bank on the interbank market finally not in all the cases. Indeed, the pure broker can be remunerated in two manners. The first, it is by the volume of transaction carried out by its customers (4 has 5$ per treated million for example). It is often that which is privileged and which makes it possible the broker to reduce its spreads. Second is what one calls the markup (ex: addition of a pips to the best offer and withdrawal of a pip to the best bid of its liquidity providers). The pure broker then gains a pip on each transaction.
The pure brokers do not take positions against you since they are autohedger by their liquidity provider. Even if contrary to the ECN, your anonymity is not kept, the scalping is thus authorized because the broker is not risks some even if you keep your position a few seconds.
In addition to a more important liquidity, the pure brokers propose advantages compared to the ECN in particular in the client relationship and the services brought. You will frequently have a range of tools higher, of the councils, analyzes, signals, subscription has systems of trading, managed accounts.
The market makers finally, are anything else only a little particular brokers. They generally post fixed spreads but the principal difference with the pure brokers is it not transparency of the prices. The market maker can decide to dimension apart from the prices of its suppliers of liquidities (LP) constantly, it is in particular the case at the time of the advertisements, certain brokers solidify their prices literally whereas the banks move in same time… but because of the guaranteed fixed spreads this is a normal thing. It should be known that when your Broker proposes 3 to you pips at the time of Nona farm Payroll, during this time half of its LP dimensions spreads of 10 or 20 pips. The only means for him of adjusting its risk while preserving a fixed spread is to solidify its price or contrary to brutally shifting it towards the other side of the fork.
Market Makers are probably the types of intermediaries which developed these last years. The spread fixes and the stops guaranteed there are for much. The latter found a formula which simplifies Forex for the particular customer, even the institutional one which wants to make a little FX without it being its principal activity.
The market maker takes a contrary position with your to be covered. It will be most of the time against you in his book since it is him which ensure the intermediation between you and the supplier of liquidity. The risk management is ensured by the risk book which gives the position in volume on each currency. Actually, below a certain amount (around 50K), the market maker compensate for the orders as interns without the router towards the market. Thus if you are “Too” profitable, you affected their “profitability”… All the markets makers do not practice this kind of operations but that arrives.
With the top of 50K, it is the supplier of liquidity thus the bank which covers the operations in return for a commission, or then the market maker itself.
To be remunerated, it can is to make pay a commission on volume of transactions or then increase by a pip the spread offered by its supplier of liquidity. This spread on the EUR/USD is of 2 pips. If a broker has a spread of 2 pips and no commission takes, it is often that it is remunerated thanks to the trades losers of its customers.
Most market makers do not accept the scalping because they do not have time to be covered. When it accepts it, quotations are the bid prices by the bank and thus the spread becomes variable. That is then made on a separate account scalping.
Advantages: transparency of the prices; visible book-building; possibility of placing an order in the price range; scalping authorized; anonymity during the giving orders
Disadvantages: Spreads variables; less important liquidity; important commissions
Advantages: Important liquidity; transparency of the prices; many services offered; scalping authorized; The broker is not against you
Disadvantages: Spreads variables; commissions
Advantages: Spreads fixed; No commission; No the slippage
Disadvantages: Prohibited Scalping; quotation erroneous; if broker book only, gain much and you will not be it welcome.
It is the ideal tool to accompany the tendencies and to optimize your exits. Super Trend evolves with the top or the lower part of the prices according to the developed tendency. It accompanies the prices as a following stop with the difference that this one does not progress or is not closed again on the prices during the zones of congestion. That gives more space and time to the prices to evolve, you thus giving the possibility of collecting a more important movement. You will be able to use it as indicating of exit as soon as this one changes direction or to position stops of protection.
Application of the method
Point entrance: Generally it is preferable to privilege the positions purchasers when Super Trend evolves with the lower part of the prices and a contrario it is preferable to take only positions sales when Super Trend evolves with the top of the prices. It is possible to reinforce its position when the course comes to type on the super trend without crossing it.
Point exit: The exit is carried out when Super Trend changes direction.
However, the stops loss must be placed a little at the top or below super trend according to the direction of the position. The larger the unit of time will be, the more it would be necessary to draw aside its stop of the super trend. Indeed, it often happens that the wicks of the candlesticks cross the super trend and that the fence of the same candlestick is done finally on the super trend for after involving a rebound of the course.
Advantages: Allows to benefit from great movements; Do not stick to the prices and thus avoids many forgeries signals in the event of side tendency or of correction of the market; Be used on all the time bases; Offer very good performances; simple of use
Disadvantages: The stops of protection are often distant owing to the fact that the super trend does not stick to the prices;